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Saturday 12/25/10 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
- Thread starter Can'tPickaWinner2
- Start date
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SHEETS 12/24/10
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS, NFL WEEK #16 FRIDAY UPDATE *****
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THE UPDATE ADVANTAGE - The Stat/Systems Sports UPDATE is designed and intended to provide our readers with the most important pregame information that comes into our office from Tuesday through Friday. It is, literally, an update designed to be used in tandem with our Stat/Systems Reports. We feel all of the information is pertinent not only to each week’s games, but also cumulatively, as the season progresses. Information that is especially new or vital, and should be reviewed immediately, is underlined for your convenience.
• WEATHER NOTES: The EARLY forecast for Sunday - Cold in the Great Lakes states; snow flurries possible in the Northeast; rain possible in the Ohio Valley and West Coast. FOR AN UPDATED AND DETAILED FORECAST FOR A SPECIFIC LOCATION, TRY THE WEATHER CHANNEL AT www.weather.com AND ENTER THE CITY OF YOUR INTEREST. YOU CAN GET AN HOUR-BY-HOUR FORECAST THAT INCLUDES WIND, TEMPERATURE, CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA - AND EVEN DOPPLER RADAR.
• NFL PLAYOFF SITUATION PRIOR TO THIS WEEK’S GAMES - AFC Division Leaders going into this weekend’s games: New England 12-2, Pittsburgh 10-4, Kansas City 9-5, Indianapolis 8-6. Currently in AFC Wildcard position: Baltimore 10-4, New York Jets 10-4. Remaining AFC contenders: San Diego 8-6, Jacksonville 8-6, Oakland 7-7, Tennessee 6-8.
• NFC Division Leaders: Atlanta 12-2, Chicago 10-4, Philadelphia 10-4, St. Louis 6-8. Currently in NFC Wildcard position: New Orleans 10-4, N.Y. Giants 9-5. Remaining NFC contenders: Green Bay 8-6, Tampa Bay 8-6, Seattle 6-8, San Francisco 5-9.
• ELIMINATED: Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit. Houston, Miami, Minnesota, Washington.
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• DALLAS COWBOYS (-6½, O/U 45½) @ ARIZONA CARDNIALS - Rookie John Skelton (46%, 0 TDs, 1 int.) starts his third straight game for the Cardinals. Arizona third WR Early Doucet (26 recs.) will miss the rest of the season with a hip injury. Dallas RB Marion Barber III returns after missing the last three games with a calf strain. WR Roy Williams (36 recs., 5 TDs) is questionable, but improving, after missing last week with a strained groin. QB Tony Romo (collarbone) has finally been placed on injured reserve, finishing him for the season and opening a roster spot for a healthy player.
• DETROIT LIONS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3½, O/U 41½) - QB Shaun Hill is expected to return to the starting lineup for Detroit. Hill (1-7 as a starter; 61% TY, 13 TDs, 11 ints.) has missed the last three games with a fractured index finger, but reportedly has been able to practice this week without significant problems. Drew Stanton, who has led the Lions to back-to-back victories, is doubtful after suffering a shoulder injury last week at Tampa Bay. Rookie Zac Robinson is also available. Matthew Stafford, out the last three weeks with a throwing shoulder injury, is not considered an option.
• MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-14½, O/U 43½) - Philly can clinch the NFC East with a victory. Eagles S Nate Allen (3 ints.), who has more than held his own in the starting lineup TY as a rookie, will miss the rest of the season with a torn patellar tendon. Fellow rookie Kurt Coleman (no starts) from Ohio State will replace him. Rookie Joe Webb is expected to start at QB for the Vikings, with Brett Favre doubtful following last week’s concussion. Webb his 15 of 26 for 129 yards and ran for 38 yards in Monday night’s frigid loss vs. the Bears, but he also had two interceptions. Favre will have to pass post-concussion tests before being allowed to play. Veteran Patrick Ramsey and newly-signed Brett Romar (Giants’ camp TY) are the backups. RB Adrian Peterson, who did not play last week because of a deep thigh bruise, is questionable. Starting FS Madieu Williams is questionable following a concussion.
• WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-7, O/U 46½) - Rex Grossman (322 YP, 4 TDs, 2 ints. last week vs. Dallas) starts his second straight game for the Redskins. Washington is (literally) thin up front on defense, with starting DT Ma’ake Kemoeatu (365 pounds) and backup DE Phillip Daniels both through for the rest of the season. Albert Haynesworth was suspended two games ago.
• SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS (-2½, O/U 39½) - St. Louis (6-8) controls its own fate to win the NFC West. San Francisco (5-9) can gain control of the NFC West with a victory in this game and a loss by the Seahawks in Tampa Bay. HC Mike Singletary says he has decided to return to Troy Smith at QB. Troy Smith is 3-2 as a starter this season, and he had a good game against the Rams in the first meeting, won 23-20 in overtime by the 49ers in San Francisco. In that game, Troy Smith was 17 of 28 for 356 YP, with a couple of other big plays nullified by penalties.
• SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6½, O/U 44) - Both teams are trying to stay alive in the NFC playoff chase. Seahawks’ coach Pete Carroll says he is sticking to QB Matt Hasselbeck this week despite the veteran’s problems in Sunday’s 34-18 loss vs. Atlanta. Hasselbeck (two interceptions; one fumble in the end zone) was replaced in the third quarter by Charlie Whitehurst. Starting CB Marcus Trufant (left last week’s game with back spasms) is expected to play, but starting DT Junior Siavii is out with a serious shoulder stinger.
• NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-8, O/U 44) @ BUFFALO BILLS - New England can clinch the AFC East and the home-field edge throughout the playoffs with a victory. Tom Brady missed Wednesday’s practice due to the flu. Starting G Dan Connolly, who also had a 71-yard KOR last week vs. Green Bay, is questionable due to a concussion. Cool and cloudy with a slight chance of snow flurries in the early forecast.
• NEW YORK JETS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-1, O/U 36½) - Chicago has already won the NFC North, and the Bears can clinch a first-round playoff bye with a victory. The Jets can clinch a playoff spot with a victory. Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez reportedly has a slight cartilage tear in his shoulder. With a chance to clinch a playoff spot, Sanchez says he plans to be starting. However, the QB reportedly has eased off throwing this week in practice. Sanchez says he hurt the joint in the first quarter of last week’s 22-17 victory at Pittsburgh. Forty-year-old backup Mark Brunell has attempted only 31 throws in the last four years. No. 3 Kellen Clemens is also available. As for dealing with record-setting return man Devin Hester (10 PR TDs, 4 KR TDs), N.Y. coach Rex Ryan says he hopes his players never have the chance to tackle Hester. Says Ryan, “I think it’s pretty safe to say we’re planning on not kicking to him. I think you can write that down.”
• BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3½, O/U 39) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS - Baltimore can clinch a playoff spot and stay alive in the AFC North with a victory. Ravens starting TE Todd Heap (37 recs., 5 TDs) is expected to return this week after missing the last two games with a strained hamstring. Cleveland QB Colt McCoy missed Wednesday’s practice due to stomach flu. Workhorse RB Peyton Hillis (1129 YR, 59 recs.) was given Wednesday off to rest a sore knee. The Browns’ defense will be without LB Scott Fujita (knee; out the last five games) and former starting CB Eric Wright (knee; lost starting job four games ago to rookie Joe Haden) for the rest of the season.
• TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-5, O/U 42½) - K.C. (9-5) controls its own fate to win the AFC West. Tennessee (6-8) is alive by the thinnest of margins in the AFC South.
• INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3, O/U 47) @ OAKLAND RAIDERS - Indianapolis (8-6) controls its own fate to win the AFC South. Indy WR Austin Collie (8 recs. for 82 yards and 2 TDs in the first half last week vs. Jacksonville) is out for the rest of the season following his third concussion in the last seven weeks. Collie leads Indy in TD catches with 8. Rookie replacement Blair White, an undrafted free agent from Michigan State, has 30 recs. for 284 yards and 3 TDs this season. RB Joseph Addai, out the last eight games with a neck injury, is considered by the team to have a good chance to return this week. A loss would eliminate Oakland from the playoffs. Pro Bowl punter Shane Lechler is questionable with a strained hamstring, with a backup P signed to the Oakland practice squad. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski replaced Lechler for one punt last week vs. Denver.
• HOUSTON TEXANS (-2½, O/U 48½) @ DENVER BRONCOS - Tim Tebow has been named the Denver QB starter for the rest of the season, even if Kyle Orton’s ribs are no longer a problem. Interim HC Eric Studesville says Tebow did enough good things in last week’s 39-23 victory in Oakland to get the call. Tebow was 8 for 16 passing for 138 yards with 1 TD (no ints.), and he ran for 78 yards, using a scaled-down, tailored gameplan that included some of the plays that worked best for him at Florida. With the Broncos’ hopelessly out of the playoff chase, insiders say a home start for Tebow also has a chance to spur ticket sales. Orton passed for 3653 yards and 20 TDs in the first 13 games. RB Knowshon Moreno (719 YR) is questionable after a rib/side injury last week.
• NEW YORK GIANTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3, O/U 43) - QB Aaron Rodgers appears on track to return for the Packers. Rodgers has been practicing and is expected to start, barring the return of any post-concussion symptoms. He will be wearing a new helmet that is expected to offer better protection. The New York defense has KO’d five QBs so far TY and leads the league in forced fumbles with 29. Green Bay will be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss. New York can clinch a playoff berth with a victory. N.Y. QB Eli Manning called a players-only meeting on Monday to help get the Giants re-focused after last Sunday’s excruciating 38-31 last-second home loss to Philadelphia. His message? Now is not the time for players to hang their heads and that it’s important for the Giants to move on, despite the loss to the Eagles.
• SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-7½, O/U 44) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS - Terrell Owens, who leads the Bengals with 72 recs., 983 yards and 9 TDC, will miss the last two games due to torn knee cartilage. And Chad Ochocinco (67 recs., 4 TDs) is questionable with bone spurs in his ankle. Ochocinco says he will likely need surgery after the season. San Diego is still chasing K.C. in the AFC West, but needs help to catch the Chiefs. With former holdout WR Vincent Jackson collecting three TDP last week vs. S.F., the Chargers plan on holding out star TE Antonio Gates (10 TDC; foot tissue) in the last two regular season games, hoping to have him available should they make the playoffs. WR Malcolm Floyd (hamstring; DNP last week) is questionable, but WR Patrick Crayton (28 recs.) has returned to practice after missing the last four games with a wrist injury.
• NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-2½, O/U 48½) - Even if both Chicago and Philadelphia win on Sunday, Atlanta can clinch the home-field edge throughout the NFC playoffs Monday with a victory. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is 19-1 SU in his home starts, including 15 in a row. New Orleans clinches a playoff berth with a victory or a Tampa Bay loss Sunday vs. Seattle.
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••• 'INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK' •••
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While Christmas Day finds a couple of interesting NBA scuffles, Christmas night finds a meaningless NFL contest. Thankfully, there’s a silver lining to every cloud as this stocking is stuffed with our 'INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK!' Though the ‘Boys are a solid 15-4 SU and ATS in this series off an ATS loss, we want no part of their ‘UGLY’ 1-16-1 ATS STAT AS NON-DIVISION FAVORITES FROM GAME THIRTEEN OUT! We’re also not thrilled with their ‘MONEY-BURING’ 1-6 ATS mark when they line up as favorites this season or their 1-4 ATS log on Saturdays during the regular season when they arrive off a SU win.
We just asked you to go with the Panthers two days ago and now we’re suggesting a play on the Cardinals. It may be a case of too much eggnog but it just may be that the Redbirds are a ‘PERFECT’ 6-0 ATS at home on Saturdays during the regular season off a SU loss. It also may be a case of ‘Zona owning a 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS mark in Last Home Games off a loss since 2000. “Whatever the case, we’ll have another as Cardinals’ HC Ken Whisenhunt improves to 10-3 SU and ATS at home as pick or a dog!"
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!
“Who will cash at the betting window in Week #16 of the NFL season, be sure to get all your winners each day... "Where the Winning Never Stops right here @ Stat/Systems Sports!" Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 "You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
NOTE: All New Website Coming Soon!
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***** NFL WEEK #16 BETTING INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• QUICK HITS
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-- #103 DALLAS @ #104 ARIZONA - DAL is 15-7 ATS L22 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points... DAL is 2-4 ATS L6 dome games... DAL is 6-3 ATS L9 games off a win against a division rival... DAL is 5-0 to the OVER L5 games... DAL is 4-1 to the OVER L5 road games... ARI is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. DAL... ARI is 3-7 ATS L10 games as an underdog... ARI is 8-2 ATS L10 Sat. games... ARI is 7-11 ATS L18 games vs. NFC East... ARI is 6-2 to the OVER L8 home games... ARI is 5-2 to the UNDER L7 games vs. DAL.
-- #105 LIONS @ #106 DOLPHINS - DET is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. MIA... DET is 10-3 ATS L13 games... DET is 8-3 ATS L11 games as an underdog... DET is 8-2 ATS L10 Dec. games... DET is 8-3 to the OVER L11 games... DET is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 games... MIA is 2-7 ATS L9 home games... MIA is 0-8 ATS L8 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points... MIA is 3-8 ATS L11 games vs. NFC... MIA is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 games... MIA is 10-5 to the OVER L15 home games.
-- #107 VIKINGS @ #108 EAGLES - MIN is 0-5 ATS L5 games vs. PHI... MIN is 4-11 ATS L15 games played on a grass field... MIN is 3-8 ATS L11 Dec. games... MIN is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 games... MIN is 7-4 to the UNDER L11 Dec. games... PHI is 2-4 ATS L6 games vs. NFC North... PHI is 8-3 ATS L11 Dec. games... PHI is 7-3 ATS L10 games off a win against a division rival... PHI is 9=1 to the OVER L10 games... PHI is 10-5 to the OVER L15 home games.
-- #109 REDSKINS @ #110 JAGUARS - WAS is 32-14 ATS L46 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points... WAS is 6-3 ATS L9 games vs. AFC South... WAS is 7-3 ATS L10 games after two or more consecutive losses... WAS is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 games... WAS is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 road games... JAC is 5-2 ATS L7 home games... JAC is 4-12 ATS L16 games as a favorite... JAC is 12-6 ATS L18 games vs. NFC East... JAC is 0-8 ATS L8 games off a loss against a division rival... JAC is 6-2 to the OVER L8 games... JAC is 4-1 to the OVER L5 home games.
-- #111 49ERS @ #112 RAMS - SFX is 3-7-1 ATS L11 road games... SFX is 6-12 ATS L18 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less... SFX is 7-2 ATS L9 dome games... SFX is 7-2 to the UNDER L9 games vs. STL... SFX is 8-2 to the UNDER L10 games in the last four weeks or the regular season... STL is 3-9 ATS L12 games vs. SFX... STL is 6-1 ATS L7 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points... STL is 5-11 ATS L16 games vs. NFC West... STL is 12-5 to the UNDER L17 games... STL is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 home games.
-- #113 SEAHAWKS @ #114 BUCCANEERS - SEA is 3-13 ATS L16 road games... SEA is 10-22 ATS L32 games as an underdog... SEA is 11-4 ATS L15 games after two or more consecutive loses... SEA is 5-14 ATS L19 games when playing against a team with a winning record... SEA is 5-0 to the OVER L5 games... SEA is 4-1 to the OVER L5 road games... TAM is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. SEA... TAM is 6-15 ATS L21 home games... TAM is 3-7 ATS L10 Dec. games... TAM is 14-7 to the UNDER L21 games... TAM is 5-0 to the UNDER L5 games vs. SEA.
-- #115 PATRIOTS @ #116 BILLS - NEP is 5-0-1 ATS L6 road games vs. BUF... NEP is 5-2 ATS L7 road games... NEP is 11-5 ATS L16 games after two or more consecutive wins... NEP is 5-0 to the OVER L5 games... NEP is 7-1 to the OVER L8 road games... BUF is 6-12-2 ATS L20 home games... BUF is 7-3 ATS L10 games vs. AFC... BUF is 5-9 ATS L14 games off a division game... BUF is 6-2 to the UNDER L8 games... BUF is 17-6 to the UNDER L23 games vs. NEP.
-- #117 JETS @ #118 BEARS - NYJ is 1-3-1 ATS L5 games vs. CHI... NYJ is 5-0 ATS L5 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less... NYJ is 14-7 ATS L21 games vs. NFC North... NYJ is 10-3 to the OVER L13 games... NYJ is 5-0 to the OVER L5 road games... CHI is 4-8 ATS L12 home games... CHI is 9-13 ATS L22 games after playing on MNF... CHI is 13-8 ATS L21 games vs. AFC East... CHI is 3-7 ATS L10 games off a win against a division rival... CHI is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games... CHI is 5-0 to the UNDER L5 games vs. NYJ.
-- #119 RAVENS @ #120 BROWNS - BAL is 26-13 ATS L39 games played on a grass field... BAL is 7-3 ATS L10 Dec. games... BAL is 11-2 ATS L13 games when playing against a team with a losing record... BAL is 4-2 to the OVER L6 games... BAL is 6-2 to the OVER L8 games vs. CLE... CLE is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. BAL... CLE is 1-6 ATS L7 games where the line is +3 to -3... CLE is 2-7 ATS L9 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points... CLE is 6-3 to the OVER L9 games... CLE is 4-1 to the OVER L5 home games.
-- #121 TITANS @ #122 CHIEFS - TEN is 13-7 ATS L20 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points... TEN is 9-17 ATS L26 games vs. AFC West... TEN is 4-1 ATS L5 games off a win against a division rival... TEN is 6-3 to the UNDER L9 road games... TEN is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games vs. KAN... KAN is 1-4 ATS L5 home games vs. TEN... KAN is 3-7 ATS L10 games as a favorite... KAN is 4-7 ATS L11 Dec. games... KAN is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 games... KAN is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 home games.
-- #123 COLTS @ #124 RAIDERS - IND is 1-5 ATS L6 games vs. OAK... IND is 20-10 ATS L30 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less... IND is 11-5 ATS L16 games off a division game... IND is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games... IND is 5-0 to the OVER L5 road games... OAK is 5-16 ATS L21 games a a home underdog of 3 points or less... OAK is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. AFC South... OAK is 5-11 ATS L16 games off a division game... OAK is 4-2 to the OVER L6 games... OAK is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 games vs. IND.
-- #125 TEXANS @ #126 BRONCOS - HOU is 2-8 ATS L10 games... HOU is 8-13 ATS L21 games as a favorite... HOU is 30-15 ATS L45 games after two or more consecutive wins... HOU is 6-1 to the OVER L7 games... HOU is 6-1 to the OVER L7 road games... DEN is 4-10 ATS L14 games... DEN is 3-7 ATS L10 games as an underdog... DEN is 0-6 ATS L6 games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points... DEN is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. AFC South... DEN is 14-5 to the OVER L19 games... DEN is 7-1 to the OVER L8 home games.
-- #127 GIANTS @ #128 PACKERS - NYG is 2-4 ATD L6 games vs. GBP... NYG is 2-4 ATS L6 games off a loss against a division rival... NYG is 9-7 ATS L16 games off a division game... NYG is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games vs. GBP... NYG is 10-6 to the OVER L16 games off a division game... GBP is 9-1 SU L10 home games... GBP is 7-4 ATS L11 Dec. games... GBP is 8-6 ATS l14 games when playing against a team with a winning record... GBP is 4-1 to the OVER L5 home games... GBP is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 games vs. NFC East.
-- #129 CHARGERS @ #130 BENGALS - SDC is 1-8 ATS L9 road games where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points... SDC is 1-5 ATS L6 games vs. AFC North... SDC is 11-6 ATS L17 games after two or more consecutive wins... SDC is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 games... SDC is 5-0 to the OVER L5 games vs. CIN... CIN is 3-7 ATS L10 games vs. SDC... CIN is 3-8 ATS L11 home games... CIN is 11-24 ATS L35 games vs. AFC... CIN is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 games... CIN is 4-2 to the OVER L6 home games.
-- #131 SAINTS @ #132 FALCONS - NOS is 2-5 ATS L7 road games... NOS is 3-7 ATS L10 Dec. games... NOS is 6-9 ATS L15 games vs. NFC South... NOS is 6-10 ATS L16 MNF games... NOS is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games... NOS is 5-2 to the OVER L7 road games... ATL is 5-9 ATS L14 MNF games... ATL is 9-3 ATS L12 games as a favorite... ATL is 7-2 ATS L9 games after two or more consecutive wins... ATL is 7-3 ATS L10 games in the last four weeks of the regular season... ATL is 7-2 to the OVER L9 games... ATL is 5-1 to the OVER L6 game vs. NOS.
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Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS - View the top ATS team trends for upcoming games, sorted by rating. This includes all situational and match-up trends for upcoming games.
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Team Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations (i.e. coming a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--DENVER is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 24, OPPONENT 27 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 13, OPPONENT 27.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--ST LOUIS is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 16.5, OPPONENT 27.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--ARIZONA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 15.4, OPPONENT 26 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 4-20 ATS (-18 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 17.8, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 16.3, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--BUFFALO is 29-8 ATS (+20.2 Units) after a win by 3 or less points since 1992.
The average score was BUFFALO 23.7, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 18.6, OPPONENT 26.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN DIEGO is 28-8 ATS (+19.2 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 25.8, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 20.2, OPPONENT 32.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--JACKSONVILLE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE 14.1, OPPONENT 28.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 20.1, OPPONENT 14.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 13.9, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) off a road loss over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 34.6, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARIZONA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 28.9, OPPONENT 24.1 - (Rating = 3*)
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
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• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS - View the top Over/Under team trends for upcoming games, sorted by rating. This includes all situational and match-up trends for upcoming games.
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Team Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations (i.e. coming a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--DALLAS is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) in games played on turf this season.
The average score was DALLAS 28, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 6*)
--DALLAS is 11-0 OVER (+11 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was DALLAS 27.3, OPPONENT 31.2 - (Rating = 6*)
--DALLAS is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs this season.
The average score was DALLAS 28, OPPONENT 31.7 - (Rating = 5*)
--DALLAS is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season.
The average score was DALLAS 26.4, OPPONENT 29.8 - (Rating = 5*)
--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) off 3 or more consecutive overs this season.
The average score was DALLAS 27.1, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
The average score was DALLAS 27.3, OPPONENT 29.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) off 1 or more straight overs this season.
The average score was DALLAS 27.3, OPPONENT 29.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 31.2, OPPONENT 22.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) off 1 or more straight overs this season.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 32.5, OPPONENT 21.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--NY JETS are 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
The average score was NY JETS 24.4, OPPONENT 22.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--HOUSTON is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) after a loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 27.6, OPPONENT 29.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
The average score was DALLAS 24.7, OPPONENT 27.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
The average score was DALLAS 24.5, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
The average score was DALLAS 25.3, OPPONENT 28.3 - (Rating = 3*)
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As always, the best way to take advantage of Stan 'The Man's Sharp Information found each and every day right here in his Stat/Systems Report is to join for a Week or Month, so that you get every single one of his plays, including all of his Late Information releases. “Do it now and Save Big, subscribe today! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS - View the top team trends against the first half line for upcoming games, sorted by rating. This includes all situational and match-up trends for upcoming games.
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Team Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations (i.e. coming a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--BALTIMORE is 19-4 (+14.6 Units) against the 1rst half line off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 12.3, OPPONENT 7.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--BALTIMORE is 28-12 (+14.8 Units) against the 1rst half line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 12.2, OPPONENT 7.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY GIANTS are 19-5 (+13.5 Units) against the 1rst half line after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 12.7, OPPONENT 8.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY GIANTS are 29-10 (+18 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 11.5, OPPONENT 10.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--DETROIT is 5-18 (-14.8 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 8.3, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 (+7.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 12.7, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--SEATTLE is 4-17 (-14.7 Units) against the 1rst half line after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 7.5, OPPONENT 13.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--SEATTLE is 2-12 (-11.1 Units) against the 1rst half line after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 6.4, OPPONENT 17 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 10-24 (-16.4 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 8.4, OPPONENT 10.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN DIEGO is 1-9 (-8.8 Units) against the 1rst half line in a road game where the first half total is between 21.5 and 22.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 8.1, OPPONENT 12.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 1-9 (-8.8 Units) against the 1rst half line in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 9.3, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY GIANTS are 45-24 (+18.6 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games off a division game since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 11.2, OPPONENT 10.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 11-25 (-16.5 Units) against the 1rst half line vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 9.8, OPPONENT 14.3 - (Rating = 3*)
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• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER UNDER TRENDS - View the top over/under team trends against the first half total for upcoming games, sorted by rating. This includes all situational and match-up trends for upcoming games.
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Team Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations (i.e. coming a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--ARIZONA is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 14.3, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 20.0, OPPONENT 11 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 16.8, OPPONENT 11.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--ST LOUIS is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 8.5, OPPONENT 7.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 15.2, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 18.7, OPPONENT 9.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 18.2, OPPONENT 12.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 17.5, OPPONENT 11.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 16.9, OPPONENT 12.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off 3 or more consecutive overs since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 15.8, OPPONENT 12.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANAPOLIS is 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) the 1rst half total when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 15.7, OPPONENT 11.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANAPOLIS is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) the 1rst half total after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 14.9, OPPONENT 11.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANAPOLIS is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 14.8, OPPONENT 13.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--OAKLAND is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents this season.
The average score was OAKLAND 14.5, OPPONENT 13.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--OAKLAND is 23-6 OVER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total in the last 2 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
The average score was OAKLAND 11.6, OPPONENT 14.1 - (Rating = 3*)
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• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS ATS - View the top ATS coaching trends for upcoming games, sorted by rating. This includes all situational and matchup trends for upcoming games.
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Coaches Power Trends uncover certain situations where a Coaches team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the Coach in question. These trends are great indicators of how a Head Coaches team react to certain situations (i.e. coming a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--Bill Belichick is 79-50 ATS (+24.4 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 26.2, OPPONENT 18.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--Bill Belichick is 83-55 ATS (+22.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 25.4, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--Ken Whisenhunt is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was Whisenhunt 30.9, OPPONENT 23.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--Bill Belichick is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 27.1, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--Lovie Smith is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better as the coach of CHICAGO.
The average score was Smith 19.5, OPPONENT 28.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--Mike McCarthy is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) off a non-conference game as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was McCarthy 27.8, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--Mike Singletary is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was Singletary 19.7, OPPONENT 16.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--Raheem Morris is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of TAMPA BAY.
The average score was Morris 13.9, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--Ken Whisenhunt is 15-3 ATS (+11.6 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was Whisenhunt 28.1, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--Ken Whisenhunt is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was Whisenhunt 30.9, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--Ken Whisenhunt is 16-3 ATS (+12.6 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was Whisenhunt 26.7, OPPONENT 24.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--Bill Belichick is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 25.6, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 3*)
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• TOP RATED COACHING OVER/UNDER TRENDS - View the top Over/Under coaching trends for upcoming games, sorted by rating. This includes all situational and matchup trends for upcoming games.
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Coaches Power Trends uncover certain situations where a Coaches team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the Coach in question. These trends are great indicators of how a Head Coaches team react to certain situations (i.e. coming a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--Gary Kubiak is 16-3 OVER (+12.7 Units) after a loss by 10 or more points as the coach of HOUSTON.
The average score was Kubiak 26.2, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--Bill Belichick is 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) in road games after 5 or more consecutive wins as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 30.4, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--Gary Kubiak is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) after a loss by 14 or more points as the coach of HOUSTON.
The average score was Kubiak 26.7, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--Jack Del Rio is 27-9 OVER (+17.1 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of JACKSONVILLE.
The average score was Del Rio 24.9, OPPONENT 21.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--Ken Whisenhunt is 36-18 OVER (+16.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was Whisenhunt 25.3, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--Bill Belichick is 18-4 OVER (+13.5 Units) in road games after 4 or more consecutive wins as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 30.6, OPPONENT 22.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--Bill Belichick is 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 30.5, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--Marvin Lewis is 19-5 UNDER (+13.4 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was Lewis 18.7, OPPONENT 23 - (Rating = 3*)
--Marvin Lewis is 17-4 UNDER (+12.5 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was Lewis 19.5, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--Mike McCarthy is 18-5 OVER (+12.4 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was McCarthy 27.4, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--Jack Del Rio is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games as the coach of JACKSONVILLE.
The average score was Del Rio 30.4, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--Jack Del Rio is 15-3 OVER (+11.6 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season as the coach of JACKSONVILLE.
The average score was Del Rio 24.6, OPPONENT 22.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--Jeff Fisher is 18-5 OVER (+12.4 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of TENNESSEE.
The average score was Fisher 22.4, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 3*)
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Most sports bettors are not aware that the College Basketball and NBA season is a very profitable time of the year. Stan 'The Man' has made more money for his clients during the basketball season than most Sports Services do, during the entire football, and baseball seasons combined!
If you are serious about making money all season long, I strongly suggest you purchase one of my Basketball Packages! Last season, a $100/game bettor made $6,790. A $500/game bettor made $33,950! "Don't try to do it on your own again this season. We both know how that turns out, so let our NBA and CBB Expert, Stan Szumera handle all of your basketball betting needs this season, and let him make you money week after week!"
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• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS - NFL WEEK #16 - Display the Highest Rated Active Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (SAN DIEGO) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(24-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.9%, +20.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.2, Opponent 10.7 (Total first half points scored = 26.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (43-25).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.9, Opponent 7.8 (Average first half point differential = +5.1)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (47-26).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (86-50).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season.
(25-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (12-18 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.2
The average score in these games was: Team 18.7, Opponent 17.9 (Average point differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 11 (36.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (49-18).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - off 2 consecutive road losses, with a winning record on the season.
(25-5 since 1983.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 45.8
The average score in these games was: Team 22.8, Opponent 16.4 (Total points scored = 39.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (55.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
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Stan the Man Szumera a Professional Handicapper since 1977 offers you 33 years of experience. Stan is known for his strong work ethic and his commitment to delivering you the best analysis available. With regards to style, The Man likes to use the perfect blend of three decades of experience as well as emotional, statistical, and technical support to back up his selections.
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS, NFL WEEK #16 FRIDAY UPDATE *****
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THE UPDATE ADVANTAGE - The Stat/Systems Sports UPDATE is designed and intended to provide our readers with the most important pregame information that comes into our office from Tuesday through Friday. It is, literally, an update designed to be used in tandem with our Stat/Systems Reports. We feel all of the information is pertinent not only to each week’s games, but also cumulatively, as the season progresses. Information that is especially new or vital, and should be reviewed immediately, is underlined for your convenience.
• WEATHER NOTES: The EARLY forecast for Sunday - Cold in the Great Lakes states; snow flurries possible in the Northeast; rain possible in the Ohio Valley and West Coast. FOR AN UPDATED AND DETAILED FORECAST FOR A SPECIFIC LOCATION, TRY THE WEATHER CHANNEL AT www.weather.com AND ENTER THE CITY OF YOUR INTEREST. YOU CAN GET AN HOUR-BY-HOUR FORECAST THAT INCLUDES WIND, TEMPERATURE, CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA - AND EVEN DOPPLER RADAR.
• NFL PLAYOFF SITUATION PRIOR TO THIS WEEK’S GAMES - AFC Division Leaders going into this weekend’s games: New England 12-2, Pittsburgh 10-4, Kansas City 9-5, Indianapolis 8-6. Currently in AFC Wildcard position: Baltimore 10-4, New York Jets 10-4. Remaining AFC contenders: San Diego 8-6, Jacksonville 8-6, Oakland 7-7, Tennessee 6-8.
• NFC Division Leaders: Atlanta 12-2, Chicago 10-4, Philadelphia 10-4, St. Louis 6-8. Currently in NFC Wildcard position: New Orleans 10-4, N.Y. Giants 9-5. Remaining NFC contenders: Green Bay 8-6, Tampa Bay 8-6, Seattle 6-8, San Francisco 5-9.
• ELIMINATED: Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit. Houston, Miami, Minnesota, Washington.
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• DALLAS COWBOYS (-6½, O/U 45½) @ ARIZONA CARDNIALS - Rookie John Skelton (46%, 0 TDs, 1 int.) starts his third straight game for the Cardinals. Arizona third WR Early Doucet (26 recs.) will miss the rest of the season with a hip injury. Dallas RB Marion Barber III returns after missing the last three games with a calf strain. WR Roy Williams (36 recs., 5 TDs) is questionable, but improving, after missing last week with a strained groin. QB Tony Romo (collarbone) has finally been placed on injured reserve, finishing him for the season and opening a roster spot for a healthy player.
• DETROIT LIONS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3½, O/U 41½) - QB Shaun Hill is expected to return to the starting lineup for Detroit. Hill (1-7 as a starter; 61% TY, 13 TDs, 11 ints.) has missed the last three games with a fractured index finger, but reportedly has been able to practice this week without significant problems. Drew Stanton, who has led the Lions to back-to-back victories, is doubtful after suffering a shoulder injury last week at Tampa Bay. Rookie Zac Robinson is also available. Matthew Stafford, out the last three weeks with a throwing shoulder injury, is not considered an option.
• MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-14½, O/U 43½) - Philly can clinch the NFC East with a victory. Eagles S Nate Allen (3 ints.), who has more than held his own in the starting lineup TY as a rookie, will miss the rest of the season with a torn patellar tendon. Fellow rookie Kurt Coleman (no starts) from Ohio State will replace him. Rookie Joe Webb is expected to start at QB for the Vikings, with Brett Favre doubtful following last week’s concussion. Webb his 15 of 26 for 129 yards and ran for 38 yards in Monday night’s frigid loss vs. the Bears, but he also had two interceptions. Favre will have to pass post-concussion tests before being allowed to play. Veteran Patrick Ramsey and newly-signed Brett Romar (Giants’ camp TY) are the backups. RB Adrian Peterson, who did not play last week because of a deep thigh bruise, is questionable. Starting FS Madieu Williams is questionable following a concussion.
• WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-7, O/U 46½) - Rex Grossman (322 YP, 4 TDs, 2 ints. last week vs. Dallas) starts his second straight game for the Redskins. Washington is (literally) thin up front on defense, with starting DT Ma’ake Kemoeatu (365 pounds) and backup DE Phillip Daniels both through for the rest of the season. Albert Haynesworth was suspended two games ago.
• SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS (-2½, O/U 39½) - St. Louis (6-8) controls its own fate to win the NFC West. San Francisco (5-9) can gain control of the NFC West with a victory in this game and a loss by the Seahawks in Tampa Bay. HC Mike Singletary says he has decided to return to Troy Smith at QB. Troy Smith is 3-2 as a starter this season, and he had a good game against the Rams in the first meeting, won 23-20 in overtime by the 49ers in San Francisco. In that game, Troy Smith was 17 of 28 for 356 YP, with a couple of other big plays nullified by penalties.
• SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6½, O/U 44) - Both teams are trying to stay alive in the NFC playoff chase. Seahawks’ coach Pete Carroll says he is sticking to QB Matt Hasselbeck this week despite the veteran’s problems in Sunday’s 34-18 loss vs. Atlanta. Hasselbeck (two interceptions; one fumble in the end zone) was replaced in the third quarter by Charlie Whitehurst. Starting CB Marcus Trufant (left last week’s game with back spasms) is expected to play, but starting DT Junior Siavii is out with a serious shoulder stinger.
• NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-8, O/U 44) @ BUFFALO BILLS - New England can clinch the AFC East and the home-field edge throughout the playoffs with a victory. Tom Brady missed Wednesday’s practice due to the flu. Starting G Dan Connolly, who also had a 71-yard KOR last week vs. Green Bay, is questionable due to a concussion. Cool and cloudy with a slight chance of snow flurries in the early forecast.
• NEW YORK JETS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-1, O/U 36½) - Chicago has already won the NFC North, and the Bears can clinch a first-round playoff bye with a victory. The Jets can clinch a playoff spot with a victory. Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez reportedly has a slight cartilage tear in his shoulder. With a chance to clinch a playoff spot, Sanchez says he plans to be starting. However, the QB reportedly has eased off throwing this week in practice. Sanchez says he hurt the joint in the first quarter of last week’s 22-17 victory at Pittsburgh. Forty-year-old backup Mark Brunell has attempted only 31 throws in the last four years. No. 3 Kellen Clemens is also available. As for dealing with record-setting return man Devin Hester (10 PR TDs, 4 KR TDs), N.Y. coach Rex Ryan says he hopes his players never have the chance to tackle Hester. Says Ryan, “I think it’s pretty safe to say we’re planning on not kicking to him. I think you can write that down.”
• BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3½, O/U 39) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS - Baltimore can clinch a playoff spot and stay alive in the AFC North with a victory. Ravens starting TE Todd Heap (37 recs., 5 TDs) is expected to return this week after missing the last two games with a strained hamstring. Cleveland QB Colt McCoy missed Wednesday’s practice due to stomach flu. Workhorse RB Peyton Hillis (1129 YR, 59 recs.) was given Wednesday off to rest a sore knee. The Browns’ defense will be without LB Scott Fujita (knee; out the last five games) and former starting CB Eric Wright (knee; lost starting job four games ago to rookie Joe Haden) for the rest of the season.
• TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-5, O/U 42½) - K.C. (9-5) controls its own fate to win the AFC West. Tennessee (6-8) is alive by the thinnest of margins in the AFC South.
• INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3, O/U 47) @ OAKLAND RAIDERS - Indianapolis (8-6) controls its own fate to win the AFC South. Indy WR Austin Collie (8 recs. for 82 yards and 2 TDs in the first half last week vs. Jacksonville) is out for the rest of the season following his third concussion in the last seven weeks. Collie leads Indy in TD catches with 8. Rookie replacement Blair White, an undrafted free agent from Michigan State, has 30 recs. for 284 yards and 3 TDs this season. RB Joseph Addai, out the last eight games with a neck injury, is considered by the team to have a good chance to return this week. A loss would eliminate Oakland from the playoffs. Pro Bowl punter Shane Lechler is questionable with a strained hamstring, with a backup P signed to the Oakland practice squad. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski replaced Lechler for one punt last week vs. Denver.
• HOUSTON TEXANS (-2½, O/U 48½) @ DENVER BRONCOS - Tim Tebow has been named the Denver QB starter for the rest of the season, even if Kyle Orton’s ribs are no longer a problem. Interim HC Eric Studesville says Tebow did enough good things in last week’s 39-23 victory in Oakland to get the call. Tebow was 8 for 16 passing for 138 yards with 1 TD (no ints.), and he ran for 78 yards, using a scaled-down, tailored gameplan that included some of the plays that worked best for him at Florida. With the Broncos’ hopelessly out of the playoff chase, insiders say a home start for Tebow also has a chance to spur ticket sales. Orton passed for 3653 yards and 20 TDs in the first 13 games. RB Knowshon Moreno (719 YR) is questionable after a rib/side injury last week.
• NEW YORK GIANTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3, O/U 43) - QB Aaron Rodgers appears on track to return for the Packers. Rodgers has been practicing and is expected to start, barring the return of any post-concussion symptoms. He will be wearing a new helmet that is expected to offer better protection. The New York defense has KO’d five QBs so far TY and leads the league in forced fumbles with 29. Green Bay will be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss. New York can clinch a playoff berth with a victory. N.Y. QB Eli Manning called a players-only meeting on Monday to help get the Giants re-focused after last Sunday’s excruciating 38-31 last-second home loss to Philadelphia. His message? Now is not the time for players to hang their heads and that it’s important for the Giants to move on, despite the loss to the Eagles.
• SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-7½, O/U 44) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS - Terrell Owens, who leads the Bengals with 72 recs., 983 yards and 9 TDC, will miss the last two games due to torn knee cartilage. And Chad Ochocinco (67 recs., 4 TDs) is questionable with bone spurs in his ankle. Ochocinco says he will likely need surgery after the season. San Diego is still chasing K.C. in the AFC West, but needs help to catch the Chiefs. With former holdout WR Vincent Jackson collecting three TDP last week vs. S.F., the Chargers plan on holding out star TE Antonio Gates (10 TDC; foot tissue) in the last two regular season games, hoping to have him available should they make the playoffs. WR Malcolm Floyd (hamstring; DNP last week) is questionable, but WR Patrick Crayton (28 recs.) has returned to practice after missing the last four games with a wrist injury.
• NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-2½, O/U 48½) - Even if both Chicago and Philadelphia win on Sunday, Atlanta can clinch the home-field edge throughout the NFC playoffs Monday with a victory. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is 19-1 SU in his home starts, including 15 in a row. New Orleans clinches a playoff berth with a victory or a Tampa Bay loss Sunday vs. Seattle.
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••• 'INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK' •••
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While Christmas Day finds a couple of interesting NBA scuffles, Christmas night finds a meaningless NFL contest. Thankfully, there’s a silver lining to every cloud as this stocking is stuffed with our 'INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK!' Though the ‘Boys are a solid 15-4 SU and ATS in this series off an ATS loss, we want no part of their ‘UGLY’ 1-16-1 ATS STAT AS NON-DIVISION FAVORITES FROM GAME THIRTEEN OUT! We’re also not thrilled with their ‘MONEY-BURING’ 1-6 ATS mark when they line up as favorites this season or their 1-4 ATS log on Saturdays during the regular season when they arrive off a SU win.
We just asked you to go with the Panthers two days ago and now we’re suggesting a play on the Cardinals. It may be a case of too much eggnog but it just may be that the Redbirds are a ‘PERFECT’ 6-0 ATS at home on Saturdays during the regular season off a SU loss. It also may be a case of ‘Zona owning a 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS mark in Last Home Games off a loss since 2000. “Whatever the case, we’ll have another as Cardinals’ HC Ken Whisenhunt improves to 10-3 SU and ATS at home as pick or a dog!"
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!
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NOTE: All New Website Coming Soon!
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***** NFL WEEK #16 BETTING INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• QUICK HITS
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-- #103 DALLAS @ #104 ARIZONA - DAL is 15-7 ATS L22 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points... DAL is 2-4 ATS L6 dome games... DAL is 6-3 ATS L9 games off a win against a division rival... DAL is 5-0 to the OVER L5 games... DAL is 4-1 to the OVER L5 road games... ARI is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. DAL... ARI is 3-7 ATS L10 games as an underdog... ARI is 8-2 ATS L10 Sat. games... ARI is 7-11 ATS L18 games vs. NFC East... ARI is 6-2 to the OVER L8 home games... ARI is 5-2 to the UNDER L7 games vs. DAL.
-- #105 LIONS @ #106 DOLPHINS - DET is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. MIA... DET is 10-3 ATS L13 games... DET is 8-3 ATS L11 games as an underdog... DET is 8-2 ATS L10 Dec. games... DET is 8-3 to the OVER L11 games... DET is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 games... MIA is 2-7 ATS L9 home games... MIA is 0-8 ATS L8 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points... MIA is 3-8 ATS L11 games vs. NFC... MIA is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 games... MIA is 10-5 to the OVER L15 home games.
-- #107 VIKINGS @ #108 EAGLES - MIN is 0-5 ATS L5 games vs. PHI... MIN is 4-11 ATS L15 games played on a grass field... MIN is 3-8 ATS L11 Dec. games... MIN is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 games... MIN is 7-4 to the UNDER L11 Dec. games... PHI is 2-4 ATS L6 games vs. NFC North... PHI is 8-3 ATS L11 Dec. games... PHI is 7-3 ATS L10 games off a win against a division rival... PHI is 9=1 to the OVER L10 games... PHI is 10-5 to the OVER L15 home games.
-- #109 REDSKINS @ #110 JAGUARS - WAS is 32-14 ATS L46 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points... WAS is 6-3 ATS L9 games vs. AFC South... WAS is 7-3 ATS L10 games after two or more consecutive losses... WAS is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 games... WAS is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 road games... JAC is 5-2 ATS L7 home games... JAC is 4-12 ATS L16 games as a favorite... JAC is 12-6 ATS L18 games vs. NFC East... JAC is 0-8 ATS L8 games off a loss against a division rival... JAC is 6-2 to the OVER L8 games... JAC is 4-1 to the OVER L5 home games.
-- #111 49ERS @ #112 RAMS - SFX is 3-7-1 ATS L11 road games... SFX is 6-12 ATS L18 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less... SFX is 7-2 ATS L9 dome games... SFX is 7-2 to the UNDER L9 games vs. STL... SFX is 8-2 to the UNDER L10 games in the last four weeks or the regular season... STL is 3-9 ATS L12 games vs. SFX... STL is 6-1 ATS L7 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points... STL is 5-11 ATS L16 games vs. NFC West... STL is 12-5 to the UNDER L17 games... STL is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 home games.
-- #113 SEAHAWKS @ #114 BUCCANEERS - SEA is 3-13 ATS L16 road games... SEA is 10-22 ATS L32 games as an underdog... SEA is 11-4 ATS L15 games after two or more consecutive loses... SEA is 5-14 ATS L19 games when playing against a team with a winning record... SEA is 5-0 to the OVER L5 games... SEA is 4-1 to the OVER L5 road games... TAM is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. SEA... TAM is 6-15 ATS L21 home games... TAM is 3-7 ATS L10 Dec. games... TAM is 14-7 to the UNDER L21 games... TAM is 5-0 to the UNDER L5 games vs. SEA.
-- #115 PATRIOTS @ #116 BILLS - NEP is 5-0-1 ATS L6 road games vs. BUF... NEP is 5-2 ATS L7 road games... NEP is 11-5 ATS L16 games after two or more consecutive wins... NEP is 5-0 to the OVER L5 games... NEP is 7-1 to the OVER L8 road games... BUF is 6-12-2 ATS L20 home games... BUF is 7-3 ATS L10 games vs. AFC... BUF is 5-9 ATS L14 games off a division game... BUF is 6-2 to the UNDER L8 games... BUF is 17-6 to the UNDER L23 games vs. NEP.
-- #117 JETS @ #118 BEARS - NYJ is 1-3-1 ATS L5 games vs. CHI... NYJ is 5-0 ATS L5 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less... NYJ is 14-7 ATS L21 games vs. NFC North... NYJ is 10-3 to the OVER L13 games... NYJ is 5-0 to the OVER L5 road games... CHI is 4-8 ATS L12 home games... CHI is 9-13 ATS L22 games after playing on MNF... CHI is 13-8 ATS L21 games vs. AFC East... CHI is 3-7 ATS L10 games off a win against a division rival... CHI is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games... CHI is 5-0 to the UNDER L5 games vs. NYJ.
-- #119 RAVENS @ #120 BROWNS - BAL is 26-13 ATS L39 games played on a grass field... BAL is 7-3 ATS L10 Dec. games... BAL is 11-2 ATS L13 games when playing against a team with a losing record... BAL is 4-2 to the OVER L6 games... BAL is 6-2 to the OVER L8 games vs. CLE... CLE is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. BAL... CLE is 1-6 ATS L7 games where the line is +3 to -3... CLE is 2-7 ATS L9 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points... CLE is 6-3 to the OVER L9 games... CLE is 4-1 to the OVER L5 home games.
-- #121 TITANS @ #122 CHIEFS - TEN is 13-7 ATS L20 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points... TEN is 9-17 ATS L26 games vs. AFC West... TEN is 4-1 ATS L5 games off a win against a division rival... TEN is 6-3 to the UNDER L9 road games... TEN is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games vs. KAN... KAN is 1-4 ATS L5 home games vs. TEN... KAN is 3-7 ATS L10 games as a favorite... KAN is 4-7 ATS L11 Dec. games... KAN is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 games... KAN is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 home games.
-- #123 COLTS @ #124 RAIDERS - IND is 1-5 ATS L6 games vs. OAK... IND is 20-10 ATS L30 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less... IND is 11-5 ATS L16 games off a division game... IND is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games... IND is 5-0 to the OVER L5 road games... OAK is 5-16 ATS L21 games a a home underdog of 3 points or less... OAK is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. AFC South... OAK is 5-11 ATS L16 games off a division game... OAK is 4-2 to the OVER L6 games... OAK is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 games vs. IND.
-- #125 TEXANS @ #126 BRONCOS - HOU is 2-8 ATS L10 games... HOU is 8-13 ATS L21 games as a favorite... HOU is 30-15 ATS L45 games after two or more consecutive wins... HOU is 6-1 to the OVER L7 games... HOU is 6-1 to the OVER L7 road games... DEN is 4-10 ATS L14 games... DEN is 3-7 ATS L10 games as an underdog... DEN is 0-6 ATS L6 games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points... DEN is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. AFC South... DEN is 14-5 to the OVER L19 games... DEN is 7-1 to the OVER L8 home games.
-- #127 GIANTS @ #128 PACKERS - NYG is 2-4 ATD L6 games vs. GBP... NYG is 2-4 ATS L6 games off a loss against a division rival... NYG is 9-7 ATS L16 games off a division game... NYG is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games vs. GBP... NYG is 10-6 to the OVER L16 games off a division game... GBP is 9-1 SU L10 home games... GBP is 7-4 ATS L11 Dec. games... GBP is 8-6 ATS l14 games when playing against a team with a winning record... GBP is 4-1 to the OVER L5 home games... GBP is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 games vs. NFC East.
-- #129 CHARGERS @ #130 BENGALS - SDC is 1-8 ATS L9 road games where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points... SDC is 1-5 ATS L6 games vs. AFC North... SDC is 11-6 ATS L17 games after two or more consecutive wins... SDC is 4-1 to the UNDER L5 games... SDC is 5-0 to the OVER L5 games vs. CIN... CIN is 3-7 ATS L10 games vs. SDC... CIN is 3-8 ATS L11 home games... CIN is 11-24 ATS L35 games vs. AFC... CIN is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 games... CIN is 4-2 to the OVER L6 home games.
-- #131 SAINTS @ #132 FALCONS - NOS is 2-5 ATS L7 road games... NOS is 3-7 ATS L10 Dec. games... NOS is 6-9 ATS L15 games vs. NFC South... NOS is 6-10 ATS L16 MNF games... NOS is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games... NOS is 5-2 to the OVER L7 road games... ATL is 5-9 ATS L14 MNF games... ATL is 9-3 ATS L12 games as a favorite... ATL is 7-2 ATS L9 games after two or more consecutive wins... ATL is 7-3 ATS L10 games in the last four weeks of the regular season... ATL is 7-2 to the OVER L9 games... ATL is 5-1 to the OVER L6 game vs. NOS.
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Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS - View the top ATS team trends for upcoming games, sorted by rating. This includes all situational and match-up trends for upcoming games.
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Team Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations (i.e. coming a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--DENVER is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 24, OPPONENT 27 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 13, OPPONENT 27.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--ST LOUIS is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 16.5, OPPONENT 27.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--ARIZONA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 15.4, OPPONENT 26 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 4-20 ATS (-18 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 17.8, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 16.3, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--BUFFALO is 29-8 ATS (+20.2 Units) after a win by 3 or less points since 1992.
The average score was BUFFALO 23.7, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 18.6, OPPONENT 26.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN DIEGO is 28-8 ATS (+19.2 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 25.8, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 20.2, OPPONENT 32.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--JACKSONVILLE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE 14.1, OPPONENT 28.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 20.1, OPPONENT 14.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 13.9, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) off a road loss over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 34.6, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARIZONA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 28.9, OPPONENT 24.1 - (Rating = 3*)
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
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• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS - View the top Over/Under team trends for upcoming games, sorted by rating. This includes all situational and match-up trends for upcoming games.
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Team Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations (i.e. coming a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--DALLAS is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) in games played on turf this season.
The average score was DALLAS 28, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 6*)
--DALLAS is 11-0 OVER (+11 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was DALLAS 27.3, OPPONENT 31.2 - (Rating = 6*)
--DALLAS is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs this season.
The average score was DALLAS 28, OPPONENT 31.7 - (Rating = 5*)
--DALLAS is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season.
The average score was DALLAS 26.4, OPPONENT 29.8 - (Rating = 5*)
--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) off 3 or more consecutive overs this season.
The average score was DALLAS 27.1, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
The average score was DALLAS 27.3, OPPONENT 29.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) off 1 or more straight overs this season.
The average score was DALLAS 27.3, OPPONENT 29.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 31.2, OPPONENT 22.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) off 1 or more straight overs this season.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 32.5, OPPONENT 21.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--NY JETS are 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
The average score was NY JETS 24.4, OPPONENT 22.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--HOUSTON is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) after a loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 27.6, OPPONENT 29.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
The average score was DALLAS 24.7, OPPONENT 27.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
The average score was DALLAS 24.5, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
The average score was DALLAS 25.3, OPPONENT 28.3 - (Rating = 3*)
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As always, the best way to take advantage of Stan 'The Man's Sharp Information found each and every day right here in his Stat/Systems Report is to join for a Week or Month, so that you get every single one of his plays, including all of his Late Information releases. “Do it now and Save Big, subscribe today! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS - View the top team trends against the first half line for upcoming games, sorted by rating. This includes all situational and match-up trends for upcoming games.
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Team Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations (i.e. coming a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--BALTIMORE is 19-4 (+14.6 Units) against the 1rst half line off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 12.3, OPPONENT 7.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--BALTIMORE is 28-12 (+14.8 Units) against the 1rst half line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 12.2, OPPONENT 7.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY GIANTS are 19-5 (+13.5 Units) against the 1rst half line after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 12.7, OPPONENT 8.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY GIANTS are 29-10 (+18 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 11.5, OPPONENT 10.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--DETROIT is 5-18 (-14.8 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 8.3, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 (+7.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 12.7, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--SEATTLE is 4-17 (-14.7 Units) against the 1rst half line after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 7.5, OPPONENT 13.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--SEATTLE is 2-12 (-11.1 Units) against the 1rst half line after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 6.4, OPPONENT 17 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 10-24 (-16.4 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 8.4, OPPONENT 10.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN DIEGO is 1-9 (-8.8 Units) against the 1rst half line in a road game where the first half total is between 21.5 and 22.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 8.1, OPPONENT 12.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 1-9 (-8.8 Units) against the 1rst half line in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 9.3, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY GIANTS are 45-24 (+18.6 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games off a division game since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 11.2, OPPONENT 10.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 11-25 (-16.5 Units) against the 1rst half line vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 9.8, OPPONENT 14.3 - (Rating = 3*)
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• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER UNDER TRENDS - View the top over/under team trends against the first half total for upcoming games, sorted by rating. This includes all situational and match-up trends for upcoming games.
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Team Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations (i.e. coming a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--ARIZONA is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 14.3, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 20.0, OPPONENT 11 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 16.8, OPPONENT 11.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--ST LOUIS is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 8.5, OPPONENT 7.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 15.2, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 18.7, OPPONENT 9.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 18.2, OPPONENT 12.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 17.5, OPPONENT 11.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 16.9, OPPONENT 12.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off 3 or more consecutive overs since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 15.8, OPPONENT 12.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANAPOLIS is 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) the 1rst half total when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 15.7, OPPONENT 11.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANAPOLIS is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) the 1rst half total after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 14.9, OPPONENT 11.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANAPOLIS is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 14.8, OPPONENT 13.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--OAKLAND is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents this season.
The average score was OAKLAND 14.5, OPPONENT 13.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--OAKLAND is 23-6 OVER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total in the last 2 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
The average score was OAKLAND 11.6, OPPONENT 14.1 - (Rating = 3*)
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• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS ATS - View the top ATS coaching trends for upcoming games, sorted by rating. This includes all situational and matchup trends for upcoming games.
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Coaches Power Trends uncover certain situations where a Coaches team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the Coach in question. These trends are great indicators of how a Head Coaches team react to certain situations (i.e. coming a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--Bill Belichick is 79-50 ATS (+24.4 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 26.2, OPPONENT 18.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--Bill Belichick is 83-55 ATS (+22.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 25.4, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--Ken Whisenhunt is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was Whisenhunt 30.9, OPPONENT 23.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--Bill Belichick is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 27.1, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--Lovie Smith is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better as the coach of CHICAGO.
The average score was Smith 19.5, OPPONENT 28.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--Mike McCarthy is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) off a non-conference game as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was McCarthy 27.8, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--Mike Singletary is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was Singletary 19.7, OPPONENT 16.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--Raheem Morris is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of TAMPA BAY.
The average score was Morris 13.9, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--Ken Whisenhunt is 15-3 ATS (+11.6 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was Whisenhunt 28.1, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--Ken Whisenhunt is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was Whisenhunt 30.9, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--Ken Whisenhunt is 16-3 ATS (+12.6 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was Whisenhunt 26.7, OPPONENT 24.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--Bill Belichick is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 25.6, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 3*)
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• TOP RATED COACHING OVER/UNDER TRENDS - View the top Over/Under coaching trends for upcoming games, sorted by rating. This includes all situational and matchup trends for upcoming games.
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Coaches Power Trends uncover certain situations where a Coaches team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the Coach in question. These trends are great indicators of how a Head Coaches team react to certain situations (i.e. coming a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--Gary Kubiak is 16-3 OVER (+12.7 Units) after a loss by 10 or more points as the coach of HOUSTON.
The average score was Kubiak 26.2, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--Bill Belichick is 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) in road games after 5 or more consecutive wins as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 30.4, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--Gary Kubiak is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) after a loss by 14 or more points as the coach of HOUSTON.
The average score was Kubiak 26.7, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--Jack Del Rio is 27-9 OVER (+17.1 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of JACKSONVILLE.
The average score was Del Rio 24.9, OPPONENT 21.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--Ken Whisenhunt is 36-18 OVER (+16.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was Whisenhunt 25.3, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--Bill Belichick is 18-4 OVER (+13.5 Units) in road games after 4 or more consecutive wins as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 30.6, OPPONENT 22.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--Bill Belichick is 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 30.5, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--Marvin Lewis is 19-5 UNDER (+13.4 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was Lewis 18.7, OPPONENT 23 - (Rating = 3*)
--Marvin Lewis is 17-4 UNDER (+12.5 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was Lewis 19.5, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--Mike McCarthy is 18-5 OVER (+12.4 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was McCarthy 27.4, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--Jack Del Rio is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games as the coach of JACKSONVILLE.
The average score was Del Rio 30.4, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--Jack Del Rio is 15-3 OVER (+11.6 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season as the coach of JACKSONVILLE.
The average score was Del Rio 24.6, OPPONENT 22.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--Jeff Fisher is 18-5 OVER (+12.4 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of TENNESSEE.
The average score was Fisher 22.4, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 3*)
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• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS - NFL WEEK #16 - Display the Highest Rated Active Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (SAN DIEGO) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(24-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.9%, +20.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.2, Opponent 10.7 (Total first half points scored = 26.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (43-25).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.9, Opponent 7.8 (Average first half point differential = +5.1)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (47-26).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (86-50).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season.
(25-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (12-18 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.2
The average score in these games was: Team 18.7, Opponent 17.9 (Average point differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 11 (36.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (49-18).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - off 2 consecutive road losses, with a winning record on the season.
(25-5 since 1983.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 45.8
The average score in these games was: Team 22.8, Opponent 16.4 (Total points scored = 39.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (55.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
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Stan the Man Szumera a Professional Handicapper since 1977 offers you 33 years of experience. Stan is known for his strong work ethic and his commitment to delivering you the best analysis available. With regards to style, The Man likes to use the perfect blend of three decades of experience as well as emotional, statistical, and technical support to back up his selections.
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• DREAM MATCHUP! •••
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This has been the game NBA fans circled on the calendar ever since the 2010-11 schedule was released. The matchup pits the defending champs against the oddmakers’ pick to win it all this season. A game like this one is big enough to make the NFL take a backseat to pro hoops. "Our game is built on a lot of our individual guys," Lakers guard Derek Fisher told the Los Angeles Times. "Stars and talent, rightfully or wrongfully, that's how it is. "So when you have a game that has a matchup like a Kobe Bryant and a Pau Gasol and a Lamar Odom and Dwyane Wade and LeBron James and Chris Bosh, the personalities that are going to be matching up in this game, I don't know if it can get any bigger."
Dwyane Wade sat out Thursday’s game against the Phoenix Suns because of swelling in his knee but all signs point to the All-Star returning to the lineup for the team's Christmas Day game. The Heat are just 4-15 SU and 6-13 ATS in this building, including 0-6 SU and ATS when they own a win percentage of .575 or greater. Meanwhile Kobe and company will look to improve on their 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS Saturday log.
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*** SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***
DALLAS (5-9) @ ARIZONA (4-10)
Kickoff, 7:30 p.m. EDT Line: Dallas -7/ O/U 45
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The Dallas Cowboys try to continue their resurgence under interim head coach Jason Garrett when they match up against the woeful Arizona Cardinals in a Christmas Day affair Saturday at University of Phoenix Stadium. While neither team will be returning to the playoffs this season, both are finishing the year in extremely different fashion. Dallas has won four of its past six games, while the Cardinals have dropped eight of their nine most recent tests.
Dallas' solid play has coincided with the promotion of Garrett, who took over from Wade Phillips following an embarrassing 45-7 loss to Green Bay in Week 9. The Cowboys continued to make progress under the elevated offensive coordinator this past Sunday against the Washington Redskins, when David Buehler's 39-yard field goal in the final minute helped Dallas to a 33-30 home win. Jon Kitna had two touchdown passes and finished the game with 305 yards while completing 25-of-37 attempts for the Cowboys, whose two losses under Garrett have both been three-point heartbreakers at home to NFC contenders New Orleans and Philadelphia.
"It's nice to win these games, play competitively, but we don't have to keep making them like this," said Kitna of the tight finish. "We want to control all three phases of the game and get to it early. That's where we want to get to. But they are what they are and it was a good win." Jason Witten had 10 catches for 140 yards and a score for Dallas, Miles Austin caught a touchdown pass and Buehler went 4-for-5 on field goal attempts with three extra points.
"The nature of the National Football League it's going to be a challenge every time you go out there," said Garrett. "No one's going to go away. Every time you break that huddle you need to be ready to play offensively, defensively and in the kicking game as well. The Redskins battled back, they made some plays on offense, they made some stops on defense, and they did a good job. They cashed in on some opportunities and we had our backs to the wall and we had to respond to it and ultimately we were able to do that."
The Cowboys had once thought that regular quarterback Tony Romo would return from his broken collarbone this week, but owner Jerry Jones squashed any talk of a comeback shortly after the Washington game. Dallas then placed Romo on injured reserve Tuesday, making him unavailable for the team's final contest of the year in Philadelphia. Kitna, though, has done an admirable job in his place. Although their numbers have been similar, Kitna is 4-4 after taking over following Romo's injury, while the latter guided the Cowboys to just one win in his six starts.
Arizona, meanwhile, may have hit rock bottom this past Sunday, falling to the previously one-win Carolina Panthers, 19-12. "We saw them on tape and knew they were going to play hard," said safety Kerry Rhodes of Carolina. "They were 1-12 and we aren't that much better. You can't really talk about that." Rookie quarterback John Skelton threw for 196 yards on 17-of-33 passing with an interception as the Cardinals failed to build on a 43-13 dismantling of Denver in Week 14 and fell to 4-10 on the season. Steve Breaston scored the lone Arizona touchdown when he recovered a Tim Hightower fumble in the end zone late in the game. "It was a disappointing loss for us," said Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt. "We didn't play well early and made too many mistakes to dig ourselves back from. We didn't make plays out there."
• SERIES HISTORY
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Dallas has a 55-28-1 lead in its all-time regular-season series with Arizona, but the Cardinals snapped a three-game losing streak against the Cowboys with a 30-24 home triumph during their Super Bowl run in 2008. Dallas' last victory in the set occurred at University of Phoenix Stadium during Week 10 of the 2006 campaign, a 27-10 decision.
The Cardinals did come out on top in the only postseason meeting between the one-time NFC East foes, who shared residence in the same division from 1970-2001. Arizona snapped a 34-year winless drought in the playoffs with a 20-7 verdict at Texas Stadium in an NFC First Round game in 1998. Whisenhunt won his only previous matchup with the Cowboys, while Garrett will be opposing both Whisenhunt and the Cardinals for the first time in charge.
• WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
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With or without Romo, Dallas has been primarily a pass-first offense this season but has shown better balance lately, averaging over 150 rushing yards over the past four games and racking up 217 yards on the ground in an overtime win at Indianapolis in Week 13. The renewed emphasis on running the ball could be partly due to depletions among the receiving corps, with the Cowboys losing one of their best big-play threats for the rest of the year when rookie sensation Dez Bryant broke his fibula against the Colts. Kitna (2250 passing yards, 15 TD, 10 INT) still has Austin (61 receptions, 864 yards, 6 TD) as a deep threat, but the signal-caller has overcome the loss of Bryant by incorporating tight end Witten (82 receptions, 7 TD) more in the game plan.
That was certainly the case this past week against Washington, when the perennial Pro Bowler had 10 catches for 140 yards and a score. Third-year running back Felix Jones (642 rushing yards, 46 receptions, 2 TD) has also been involved as a receiver and has supplanted plodder Marion Barber (313 rushing yards, 3 TD, 11 receptions) as the club's lead ball carrier, though he hasn't been the dynamic playmaker the Cowboys had been hoping for. Barber could return from a calf strain that has sidelined him the last three weeks, but will likely be utilized in a supporting role and primarily in short-yardage situations.
Dallas could continue to make headway running the ball this week, as defending the run has been an issue all season for an Arizona squad that's permitting a poor 145.7 rushing yards per game (30th overall) and has surrendered over 150 yards on the ground six times this year, including this past week when Carolina went for 177 yards. Look for the Cardinals to employ hard-hitting strong safety Adrian Wilson (77 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) closer to the line of scrimmage and help leading tackler Paris Lenon (112 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) and rookie and fellow inside linebacker Daryl Washington (66 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) attempt to neutralize Dallas' balanced attack.
The secondary is the strength of an overall disappointing crew, as Wilson, playmaking free safety Kerry Rhodes (80 tackles, 1 sack, 4 INT) and cornerback Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie (38 tackles, 2 INT, 13 PD) have all been to the Pro Bowl at some point in their careers, and the Cardinals lead the NFL with seven defensive touchdowns in 2010. Veteran outside linebackers Joey Porter (44 tackles, 5 sacks) and Clark Haggans (40 tackles, 4 sacks) head up a pass rush that'll be out to make life tough on the grizzled Kitna.
• WHEN THE CARDINALS HAVE THE BALL
--------------------------------------------------
Despite Skelton's (387 passing yards) rather unimpressive numbers, Whisenhunt has liked what he seen out of the strong-armed 22-year-old from a leadership and decision-making standpoint. The rookie, who will be making his third career start on Saturday, does have two excellent targets to work with when he drops back to pass, as wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald (78 receptions, 986 yards, 5 TD) is a four-time Pro Bowl honoree and counterpart Breaston (43 receptions, 1 TD) averages 16 yards per catch. The passing game, though, has been hampered by an almost non-existent rushing attack, save for a 211-yard outburst against Denver two weeks ago.
After getting a career-best 148 rushing yards and two scores out of top back Hightower (683 rushing yards, 5 TD, 18 receptions) in Week 14, the Cardinals reverted back to their ground woes last Sunday, managing just 43 yards against the Panthers with only 16 coming from Hightower. Arizona sits 30th in the league in yards gained on the ground (86.9 ypg). The Cardinals continued their season-long struggles on third downs in the Carolina game as well, converting only 4-of-15 chances on the day. Arizona is last in the NFL in that aspect, having been successful just 26 percent of the time.
If Skelton gets ample time to survey the field, there should be opportunities to pick apart a vulnerable Dallas secondary that's allowed 256.6 passing yards per game (28th overall) and has permitted 31 touchdown passes, tied with Houston for the highest total in the league. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they've got one of the game's premier pass rushers in outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (57 tackles, 12 sacks), who has recorded his fifth straight season of double-digit sacks, while 2009 All-Pro Jay Ratliff (29 tackles, 4 sacks) is a proven pressure-producer as well from his nose tackle spot.
Twelve of Dallas' 17 interceptions in 2010 have come in the last six games, with safety Gerald Sensabaugh (66 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 INT) coming up with three over that span, so Skelton will have to choose his spots wisely. A front seven headed by Ratliff and inside linebackers Bradie James (106 tackles, 1 INT) and Keith Brooking (87 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) had been doing a credible job containing the run in recent weeks, and held the Redskins to just 55 rushing yards last Sunday.
• PREGAME NOTES
------------------------
While Christmas Day finds a couple of interesting NBA scuffles, Christmas night finds a meaningless NFL contest. Thankfully, there’s a silver lining to every cloud as this stocking is stuffed with our 'INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK!' Though the ‘Boys are a solid 15-4 SU and ATS in this series off an ATS loss, we want no part of their ugly 1-16-1 ATS stat as non-division favorites from Game Thirteen out. We’re also not thrilled with their money-burning 1-6 ATS mark when they line up as favorites this season or their 1-4 ATS log on Saturdays during the regular season when they arrive off a SU win.
We just asked you to go with the Panthers two days ago and now we’re suggesting a play on the Cardinals. It may be a case of too much eggnog but it just may be that the Redbirds are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home on Saturdays during the regular season off a SU loss. It also may be a case of ‘Zona owning a 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS mark in Last Home Games off a loss since 2000. “Whatever the case, we’ll have another as Cardinals’ HC Ken Whisenhunt improves to 10-3 SU and ATS at home as pick or a dog!"
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 3; O/U 49.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -4.08
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
---------------------------------------
--ARIZONA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 28.9, OPPONENT 24.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARIZONA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 31.3, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARIZONA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 30.9, OPPONENT 24.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 4-20 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 17.8, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 19.3, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 16.3, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--ARIZONA is 71-46 OVER (+20.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 19.8, OPPONENT 24.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 11-0 OVER (+11.0 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was DALLAS 27.3, OPPONENT 31.2 - (Rating = 6*)
--DALLAS is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf this season.
The average score was DALLAS 28.0, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 6*)
--DALLAS is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
The average score was DALLAS 25.3, OPPONENT 28.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season.
The average score was DALLAS 26.4, OPPONENT 29.8 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
------------------------------------------------
--ARIZONA is 22-6 against the 1rst half line (+15.2 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 12.5, OPPONENT 9.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARIZONA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 19.2, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 24-42 against the 1rst half line (-22.2 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 9.9, OPPONENT 10.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--ARIZONA is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 14.3, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 5*)
--ARIZONA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 11.9, OPPONENT 20.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARIZONA is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 12.7, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 31-12 OVER (+17.6 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 14.5, OPPONENT 9.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (ARIZONA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams against the total (ARIZONA) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game.
(26-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.8%, +18.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 41.3
The average score in these games was: Team 24.9, Opponent 23.5 (Total points scored = 48.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (55.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (43-33).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites (DALLAS) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a losing record.
(26-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.5%, +17.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (19-17 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.1
The average score in these games was: Team 21.8, Opponent 21.3 (Average point differential = +0.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (42.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-8).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (47-27).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (120-104).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - excellent passing team (>=265 PY/G) against an average passing defense (185-230 PY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game.
(26-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.5%, +17.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12, Opponent 12.7 (Average first half point differential = -0.7)
The situation's record this season is: (1-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (30-15).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (56-31).
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
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***** SATURDAY, DECEMBER 25TH NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
----------------------------------------
--Christmas Day home favs are 8-0 ATS against foes playing with 3 or more days rest.
• HOT TEAMS
-----------------
--New York Knicks are 15-4 ATS in their past 19 overall.
--Boston Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 road games.
--Miami Heat are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 games overall.
--Golden State Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their past 5 games against the Northwest Division.
• TOTALS
------------
--Oklahoma City Thunder have seen the over hit in 9 of their past 12 home games.
• QUICK HITS
-----------------
--CHICAGO @ NEW YORK, 12:00 PM ET ESPN CHICAGO: 22-10 Under when the total is 200 to 209.5. NEW YORK: 14-4 ATS off ATS win.
--BOSTON @ ORLANDO, 2:30 PM ET ABC BOSTON: 33-16 ATS off win by 6pts or less. ORLANDO: 4-13 ATS if favored L2 games.
--MIAMI @ LA LAKERS, 5:00 PM ET ABC MIAMI: 23-9 Under off road win. LA LAKERS: 11-2 ATS off loss by 15+ points.
--DENVER @ OKLAHOMA CITY, 8:00 PM ET ESPN DENVER: 1-8 ATS off ATS win. OKLAHOMA CITY: 18-7 ATS off road loss.
--PORTLAND @ GOLDEN STATE, 10:30 PM ET ESPN PORTLAND: 3-0 ATS off BB home wins. GOLDEN STATE: 3-10 ATS off SU win as road dog.
• NOTES & TIPS
--------------------
Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade sat out Thursday’s game against the Phoenix Suns because of swelling in his knee but all signs point to the All-Star returning to the lineup for the team's Christmas Day game. “He was so fired up there after the game, I can't imagine him not playing,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra told the Miami Herald following the 95-83 win over the Suns. “Another day of rest I think will do him good. It wasn't a major thing.”
Meanwhile, sharpshooter Mike Miller has been completely ineffective since returning from thumb surgery. The Fort Launderdale Sun-Sentinel reports Miller will have to play the rest of the season with a splint on the thumb. As for the Lakers, center Andrew Bynum continues to play limited minutes while he deals with pain in his knee. Bynum's presence is a major bonus for the Lakers even in a minor role. Los Angeles big men Gasol and Odom get more rest with Bynum in the rotation.
--The Boston Celtics could be very shorthanded in their frontcourt against the Orlando Magic. Rookie center Semih Erden has started a handful of games with injuries to centers Jermaine and Shaquille O’Neal and forward Kendrick Perkins sitting out until at least the end of January following knee surgery. But now Erden, who is averaging 4.0 points and 2.5 rebounds per game, is sick with the flu and may miss the game against the Magic on Christmas with the illness. This means that a limited Shaq and forwards Glen “Big Baby” Davis and rookie Luke Harangody could be the team’s only frontcourt complements to Kevin Garnett.
--Sacramento Kings guard Tyreke Evans, who has been battling a myriad of injuries including plantar fasciitis, announced that he will skip all of the All-Star Weekend festivities in February. The reining Rookie of the Year is shooting a horrid 37.6 percent from the floor and averaging just 16.2 points and 5.2 assists per game. As a result, the team is a meager 5-22 and needs its leader to get better. Fast. “I’m going to take All-Star weekend off and just try to rest it up he said. “I’ll talk to the doctors and see what I can do while I’ve got that time off.”
• NOTE: NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
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Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** CHICAGO @ NEW YORK (-2, O/U 205.5) ***
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The New York Knicks caught the Chicago Bulls without one of their star big men in an impressive victory at the United Center last month. The Bulls will be without another front-court stalwart for the rematch, but with Carlos Boozer back it might not matter. Joakim Noah is now sidelined but Boozer is rounding into form after his injury-delayed debut, and he'll look to lead the Bulls to their 10th win in 11 games when they visit Amare Stoudemire and the Knicks on Christmas afternoon.
New York attempts a league-high 24.8 3-pointers -- a pattern it established from the start of the season. The Knicks made 16 -- five by Tony Douglas en route to a career-high 30 points -- of 24 from beyond the arc in Chicago on Nov. 4. Danilo Gallinari and Raymond Felton added four 3-pointers apiece in New York's 120-112 victory. That loss is still the season high in points allowed for Chicago which lately has been holding opponents well below triple digits.
The Bulls suffered ugly losses in Boozer's first two games back from a broken right hand, but have since won nine of 10 while allowing 87.7 points per game despite Noah's absence due to thumb surgery. That defense certainly made the difference Wednesday at Washington. Chicago held the Wizards to 47 points over the final three quarters while Boozer finished with 30 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in an 87-80 victory. Boozer is averaging averaged 21.2 points and 9.7 rebounds over the last 10 games.
Stoudemire and the Knicks went through their own seemingly unstoppable stretch, a 13-1 run Nov. 17-Dec. 12 that concluded with the first eight of Stoudemire's nine straight games with at least 30 points. He hasn't reached 25 in his last three contests, but New York was simply happy to put an end to its three-game slide Wednesday against Oklahoma City. Stoudemire scored 23 points to lead six Knicks in double figures in a 112-98 win.
"It was a tough week," Stoudemire said. "We were fatigued, we were tired. Honestly we were. So I think (Wednesday) showed that we got enough rest and we played with a lot of energy. We have a tough week still ahead of us, but we're starting off right." Stoudemire was one of the few Knicks that had a rough night during the first meeting with the Bulls. He tied a season low with 14 points, missing 16 of 21 shots while committing eight turnovers.
This is the third meeting between New York and Chicago on Christmas, and the first since 1994 -- the second year of Michael Jordan's baseball hiatus. Jordan certainly enjoyed facing the Knicks during the teams' heated rivalry in the early '90s, and the Bulls' current superstar seems to share those feelings. Derrick Rose has averaged 26.5 points and shot 58.7 percent in his last four meetings with New York. The Knicks also need to do a better job defending Luol Deng. Chicago's small forward has averaged 20.8 points against New York since the 2007-08 season -- his most against any Eastern Conference opponent.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New York by 1.5; O/U 201
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Chicago -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Chicago -1.02
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 49-31 ATS (+14.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 103.8, OPPONENT 108.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 99.3, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 59-38 UNDER (+16.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 102.5, OPPONENT 106.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 43-23 UNDER (+17.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 101.4, OPPONENT 98.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 28-11 UNDER (+15.8 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 97.5, OPPONENT 98.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 28-11 UNDER (+15.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 101.5, OPPONENT 100.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 25-44 against the 1rst half line (-23.4 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 46.7, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 29-11 against the 1rst half line (+16.9 Units) after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 39% or less since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 48.7, OPPONENT 45.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 47.5, OPPONENT 42.7 - (Rating = 5*)
--CHICAGO is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 49.4, OPPONENT 44.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 47.2, OPPONENT 43.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (CHICAGO) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%).
(23-5 since 1996.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 208.6
The average score in these games was: Team 99.7, Opponent 101.4 (Total points scored = 201.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (60.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (CHICAGO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points.
(31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.8, Opponent 49.6 (Total first half points scored = 98.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (49-23).
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*** BOSTON @ ORLANDO (-2.5, O/U 191.5) ***
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Celtics coach Doc Rivers remembers when Boston overhauled its roster three years ago. Sure, the talent was there with the Big Three. So were the questions. "When we made our move everybody told us you had to wait a year to put a championship team together," Rivers said before the Celtics practiced Friday in Orlando. "I didn't buy into that. Neither did our guys, and we proved everybody wrong."
Now imagine a major midseason shake-up. The Celtics will face a reconstructed Magic team Saturday trying to duplicate the quick turnaround -- only doing so in December -- that propelled Boston to instant champions, giving this Eastern Conference finals rematch a Christmas Day remix. "We're not playing for December or January," Magic All-Star center Dwight Howard said. "We're playing for June." Orlando is a shell of the team bounced by Boston in six games last season.
An early slide forced the Magic to orchestrate two blockbuster trades last weekend that brought Gilbert Arenas from Washington and Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark from Phoenix. They gave up Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat, plus a 2011 first-round draft pick and cash, in the deals. Now one question to be answered is do they match up better with Boston.
"I'm not sure how, since they've gotten smaller, what sense that makes," Rivers said. "They've just brought more talent and they're a better team, to me, in the long run because they've added more talent." There is a glaring difference, of course, from the Magic's makeover to the summer of 2007 when the Celtics teamed Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen with Paul Pierce: Boston still had a training camp and an entire regular season to get ready. Orlando is doing this on the fly.
Even Magic coach Stan Van Gundy isn't quite sure how it will all shake out. "I think Miami and Boston are very, very good. Chicago, Atlanta and New York are all playing well and are good. And I think we're a total unknown." he said. If last season was any indication, there's no telling what this matchup might look like in the playoffs. The Celtics limped into the postseason as the fourth seed last season. All they did was knock out top-seeded Cleveland and MVP LeBron James and second-seeded Orlando before losing to the Lakers in Game 7 of the NBA finals.
The Magic are banking on the same approach: sacrifice now to win later. And that's about all they can do at this point. They've slipped from first to tied for fifth in the East after dropping eight of nine games before beating San Antonio, still the league's best at 25-4. Now comes a Boston team that has won 14 straight games to move atop the conference. "I don't think overconfidence is going to be one of our problems right now," Van Gundy said, chuckling. "Our problems are more like learning each others' names and stuff so we can stop saying, 'Go in for No. 23."
Not that Boston has things completely cleared up. The winning streak has baffled Rivers because the team has been hit with so many injuries. Point guard Rajon Rondo, backup Delonte West, Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal have all missed significant time during the spurt. And Kendrick Perkins, the starting center last season, hasn't been on the floor all season. Rondo is expected to sit out against Orlando and both O'Neals will likely play, Rivers said. Even with the Magic just coming together, it's a matchup that will surely test Boston's bravado.
"We're not really concentrating on the streak," Shaquille O'Neal said. "One of our goals is to try to stay dominant at home, beat the teams we're supposed to beat and stay above .500 on the road." The Magic don't have quite the same regular-season expectations. Beating the NBA's top two teams in consecutive games, however, could do wonders for a new team trying to mesh. "We've only seen a glimpse of what we could be and how well we could play and what we could do," Richardson said. "Boston will be another good test. But time will tell how good we really are."
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 2; O/U 190
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -2.73
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 51-75 ATS (-31.5 Units) versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was ORLANDO 95.0, OPPONENT 94.3 - (Rating = 5*)
--ORLANDO is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 95.6, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 101.0, OPPONENT 92.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 50-30 UNDER (+17.6 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 98.0, OPPONENT 93.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 35-18 UNDER (+16.2 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 100.1, OPPONENT 93.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 46-27 UNDER (+16.3 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 96.6, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 1-8 against the 1rst half line (-7.8 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 45.8, OPPONENT 46.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 46-25 against the 1rst half line (+18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 49.4, OPPONENT 46.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 20-3 against the 1rst half line (+16.7 Units) when the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 51.0, OPPONENT 45.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--BOSTON is 18-4 against the 1rst half line (+13.6 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 50.7, OPPONENT 46.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 54-35 UNDER (+15.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 49.4, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 68-49 UNDER (+14.1 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 48.8, OPPONENT 47.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(30-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +19 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (30-11 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1
The average score in these games was: Team 99.3, Opponent 94.9 (Average point differential = +4.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (52.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-9).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (69-44).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (BOSTON) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.
(42-18 since 1996.) (70.0%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 194.8
The average score in these games was: Team 95.4, Opponent 93.3 (Total points scored = 188.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 35 (57.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-10).
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*** MIAMI @ LA LAKERS (-3.5, O/U 191.5) ***
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Kobe Bryant and Lakers coach Phil Jackson haven't really checked out the Miami Heat much this season. They've caught late night highlights and maybe logged a few minutes with a game from the opposite coast, but not a whole lot more. It's finally time for the two-time champions to get an up-close look at their most intriguing challengers. When LeBron James, Chris Bosh and maybe Dwyane Wade take on the Lakers in the NBA's Christmas showcase Saturday, most players in both uniforms hesitate to pile any extra significance onto a television-manufactured event. Most minimize every aspect of it, saying it's no more than a holiday amusement for fans seeking a break from present-opening and eggnog-drinking.
"I don't think it's a measuring stick for us," James said. "It's just another game." Yet competitiveness usually trumps Christmas for elite NBA players. Just ask Bryant -- or don't, since he tellingly hasn't spoken to the media since getting ejected from the Lakers' last game. Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher concede both teams are anticipating the marquee matchup as a chance to gauge their readiness for bigger games in the months to come. And if they eventually face each other in June for the biggest prize of all, even better.
"The personalities that are going to be matching up in this game, I don't know if it can get any bigger," said Fisher, the Lakers point guard who entertained free-agent interest from Miami last summer. "Although there will be other games in this regular season that can mean more, from a personality standpoint and a star power point, I don't know if it can get any bigger." Fisher believes the NBA's impressive television ratings and overall increased spotlight this season can be traced largely to these two franchises and the Boston Celtics. All three boast oversized personalities, compelling team dynamics and remarkable success this season, but the Lakers haven't yet played either opponent.
In fact, the Lakers have monitored the Heat's development with interest more suited to casual fans than potential rivals -- something that might change Saturday. "The dynamic players that they have, as a fan of a game, it makes it easy to watch," Los Angeles forward Lamar Odom said. The NBA has waited seven years for a playoff matchup between Bryant and James. James' Cavaliers beat the Lakers on Christmas last year in a game punctuated by dozens of foam hands thrown onto the Staples Center court by frustrated fans, but Cleveland couldn't get out of the Eastern Conference in the playoffs, leading to James' departure.
"I was in Cleveland and we beat the two-time champs twice in one season, and it didn't get me anything," James said. "It's one game, guys. The media guys hype it up, but when that time is over and done with, we've got to move on to the next one." Wade might miss the game with a sore knee, although Jackson expects him to play. Wade's absence didn't slow down the Heat on Thursday night during their win at Phoenix, with James scoring 36 points.
While the Heat have been outstanding lately, the Lakers' 21-8 record isn't terribly impressive considering it came against the NBA's easiest schedule to date. Los Angeles even flopped in its warmup for Miami, losing by 19 points at home to the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. "I thought their comeuppance might come against Miami, but Milwaukee delivered the blow," Jackson said. "So maybe it got their attention so they can get focused on basketball."
Jackson has participated in more than 20 Christmas showcase games dating to his playing career with the New York Knicks. The 11-time champion coach ranks this meeting with Miami on par with Shaquille O'Neal's return to Los Angeles with the Heat on Christmas 2004, even though he was on a one-year sabbatical from the Lakers at the time, but he doesn't anticipate the same excitement and vigor he felt from Christmas 2008, when the Lakers snapped the defending champion Celtics' 19-game winning streak at Staples. "This one measures up to that," Jackson said. "I don't think it surpasses that."
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Lakers by 3: O/U 197
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -0.10
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 101.8, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in road games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 93.2, OPPONENT 93.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was MIAMI 100.3, OPPONENT 96.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 79-50 OVER (+24.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 102.3, OPPONENT 93.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 24-8 OVER (+15.1 Units) after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 100.3, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 47-75 against the 1rst half line (-35.5 Units) as a home favorite of 2 to 3 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 49.3, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 5*)
--LA LAKERS are 43-65 against the 1rst half line (-28.5 Units) after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.2, OPPONENT 49.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 73-46 UNDER (+22.4 Units) the 1rst half total off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 49.8, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 83-51 UNDER (+26.9 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 47.3, OPPONENT 45.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 41-22 UNDER (+16.8 Units) the 1rst half total after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 47.8, OPPONENT 46.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON- Any team (LA LAKERS) - off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(30-9 since 1996.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (29-10)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.1
The average score in these games was: Team 98.5, Opponent 92.2 (Average point differential = +6.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (45.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).
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*** DENVER @ OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5, O/U 213) ***
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A tragic incident seemingly gives the Oklahoma City Thunder a significant advantage heading into their matchup Saturday night against the Denver Nuggets. The Thunder, who have historically struggled in this series, host a Nuggets team playing its second straight game without Carmelo Anthony following the death of his sister. Anthony traveled with Denver to San Antonio for Wednesday's game but left after receiving word about the death of a family member. Anthony's sister, Michelle Anthony, died of a pre-existing medical condition Tuesday in Baltimore.
The Nuggets, who ended up losing to the Spurs 109-103, aren't expecting Anthony to return until after Christmas. "It brings us down to earth," coach George Karl said before the game. "Basketball isn't the most important thing." J.R. Smith made his first start in three seasons in place of Anthony on Wednesday and played well, finishing with 22 points and seven rebounds. Kenyon Martin also started after missing the first 26 games while recovering from knee surgery, contributing eight points and five boards in 17 minutes for the Nuggets, 1-2 without Anthony this season.
Anthony has been in the middle of some controversy lately by refusing to sign a three-year, $65 million contract extension and hinting he'd like to play for New York. At the same time, he has been playing some of his best basketball, averaging 30.3 points and 10.0 rebounds in his last four games. He also has been instrumental to Denver's dominance of the Thunder. The Nuggets have won 11 of the last 13 meetings, and Anthony's 29.6 scoring average against the Oklahoma City franchise since 2005-06 is his best against any Western Conference opponent.
This will be the second time the Thunder hope to take advantage of Anthony's absence, as their only win in four games against the Nuggets last season came with the three-time All-Star sitting out because of an ankle injury. Oklahoma City is opening a four-game homestand having won seven of nine at the Ford Center. Playing in front of the home crowd should also benefit Kevin Durant, who has scored at least 30 points in each of his last five home games against the Nuggets. The Thunder are 8-2 when Durant, the league's leading scorer with an average of 27.5 points, reaches the 30-point mark this season.
Oklahoma City is coming off a 112-98 loss to the Knicks on Wednesday, its second defeat in three games after winning five straight. Durant had 26 points for the Thunder, who trailed by as many as 22 and gave up 52 points in the paint, tied for their third-most allowed all season. "We didn't come in with the right mindset," coach Scott Brooks said. "They're a physical team. They had their hands on us and really pushed us around a little bit too much tonight and we didn't take the challenge." The challenge for the Thunder now is trying to avoid losing back-to-back games for the first time since Oct. 31 and Nov. 3.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oklahoma City by 2; O/U 212
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oklahoma City -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Oklahoma City -2.01
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 41-22 ATS (+16.7 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 101.5, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 16-40 ATS (-28.4 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 103.2, OPPONENT 113.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 17-39 ATS (-25.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 108.8, OPPONENT 106.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 53-32 OVER (+17.7 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 101.3, OPPONENT 101.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-5 OVER (+15.4 Units) after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 103.2, OPPONENT 102.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 108.9, OPPONENT 105.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-15 against the 1rst half line (-13.4 Units) in home games after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 49.2, OPPONENT 53.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 63-38 against the 1rst half line (+21.2 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.1, OPPONENT 50.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 70-47 against the 1rst half line (+18.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 52.3, OPPONENT 51.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-16 UNDER (+16.2 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 50.1, OPPONENT 49.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 34-16 UNDER (+16.7 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total >= 100.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 51.3, OPPONENT 53.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games.
(41-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.2%, +24.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 56.4, Opponent 55.5 (Average first half point differential = +0.8)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-14).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (44-24).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more.
(53-21 since 1996.) (71.6%, +29.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 109.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.8, Opponent 52.4 (Total first half points scored = 106.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (44-16).
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*** PORTLAND @ GOLDEN STATE (NL) ***
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Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge and Golden State's Monta Ellis have been playing some of the best basketball of their respective careers over the last week. The only time they didn't have huge performances during that stretch came when they played against each other. Aldridge looks to lead the banged-up Trail Blazers to a fourth straight victory Saturday night at Oracle Arena, while Ellis and the Warriors try to win back-to-back games for the first time in more than six weeks. Portland and Golden State met for the first time this season last Saturday at the Rose Garden, with the short-handed Trail Blazers holding on for a 96-95 victory.
Aldridge had 17 points and 12 rebounds, but missed a key jumper with 9.9 seconds to play. That gave the Warriors a chance to win it, but Ellis, who finished with 26 points, missed a long jumper with 0.8 seconds left. Although Aldridge and Ellis each missed clutch shots in that game, they seemingly haven't missed many others over the past week. Aldridge finished with 29 points and a career-high 19 rebounds in Monday's 106-80 win over Milwaukee. He has tied a career high with four straight double-doubles while averaging 29.3 points -- 10.2 better than his season average -- on 61.8 percent shooting.
His sudden offensive surge could not have come at a better time for the Blazers, who have been without Brandon Roy (sore knee) in the last three games and centers Marcus Camby (strained shoulder) and Joel Przybilla (sprained ankle) in the last two. Roy is expected to miss another week, and without the three-time All-Star on the court, Aldridge has been more aggressive. "He's playing like a monster and that's what we need him to do," guard Wesley Matthews said of Aldridge. "He's always had it but he's been deferring a little bit. Now he's putting the team on his back and carrying us through this stretch."
Ellis has long been Golden State's go-to scorer, but he has been particularly impressive lately. He's averaging 35.0 points -- 9.4 better than his season average -- over the last four games while making 9 of 18 from 3-point range. The Warriors have won two of those contests after losing 12 of 13, though they haven't won two straight since Nov. 8-10. Ellis scored nine of his 36 points in overtime in Tuesday's 117-109 victory over Sacramento. "Monta is just so tough to guard 1-on-1," center David Lee said. "In overtime, the bigs usually get tired and they can't help out as much on him. You more or less get out of his way and let Monta do his thing."
Good things tend to happen for the Warriors when Ellis takes over games. Golden State is 7-5 when Ellis has more than 26 points, but 3-13 when he is held under his scoring average. Ellis is averaging 28.2 points in five games against the Blazers since the start of last season, but was limited to 17 points in a 110-105 loss in the last meeting at Oracle Arena on March 11. Roy had 41 points in that game for Portland, which snapped a nine-game losing streak at Golden State. The Blazers, though, have been struggling on the road, losing three straight and seven of eight.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Portland by 2; O/U 198
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Portland -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Portland -1.98
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NOTE: Possible blockbuster deal keeps Blazers' odds off the board. After Charlotte Bobcats head coach Larry Brown stepped down from his position on Wednesday, the team is discussing a major trade with the Portland Trail Blazers, according to a report on AOL Fanhouse.com. That possible deal has the odds for Portland's Christmas Day game with Golden State off the board, while oddsmaker figure out who will be in the lineup for the Trail Blazers Saturday night.
According to the report, the Bobcats are interested in shipping forward Gerald Wallace and point guard DJ Augustin to Portland in exchange for guard Andre Miller and forward/center Marcus Camby. The deal would be the latest shakeup for the team that was taken over by majority owner Michael Jordon before the season. Brown, who went 88-104 record in his two-plus seasons, was replaced by Paul Silas on Wednesday. In other Christmas Day news, the Warriors expect sharp-shooting guard Stephen Curry to return from an ankle injury versus the Trail Blazers. Curry has been out of action since December 8 and is averaging over 20 points per game for Golden State.
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (PORTLAND) - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 225 points or more.
(28-10 since 1996.) (73.7%, +17 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.5, Opponent 47.7 (Average first half point differential = +1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-4).
--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins.
(44-17 since 1996.) (72.1%, +25.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (44-17)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.3
The average score in these games was: Team 99.5, Opponent 96 (Average point differential = +3.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 26 (44.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4).
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Stan the Man Szumera a Professional Handicapper since 1977 offers you 33 years of experience. Stan is known for his strong work ethic and his commitment to delivering you the best analysis available. With regards to style, The Man likes to use the perfect blend of three decades of experience as well as emotional, statistical, and technical support to back up his selections.
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••• DREAM MATCHUP! •••
-----------------------------------
This has been the game NBA fans circled on the calendar ever since the 2010-11 schedule was released. The matchup pits the defending champs against the oddmakers’ pick to win it all this season. A game like this one is big enough to make the NFL take a backseat to pro hoops. "Our game is built on a lot of our individual guys," Lakers guard Derek Fisher told the Los Angeles Times. "Stars and talent, rightfully or wrongfully, that's how it is. "So when you have a game that has a matchup like a Kobe Bryant and a Pau Gasol and a Lamar Odom and Dwyane Wade and LeBron James and Chris Bosh, the personalities that are going to be matching up in this game, I don't know if it can get any bigger."
Dwyane Wade sat out Thursday’s game against the Phoenix Suns because of swelling in his knee but all signs point to the All-Star returning to the lineup for the team's Christmas Day game. The Heat are just 4-15 SU and 6-13 ATS in this building, including 0-6 SU and ATS when they own a win percentage of .575 or greater. Meanwhile Kobe and company will look to improve on their 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS Saturday log.
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*** SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***
DALLAS (5-9) @ ARIZONA (4-10)
Kickoff, 7:30 p.m. EDT Line: Dallas -7/ O/U 45
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The Dallas Cowboys try to continue their resurgence under interim head coach Jason Garrett when they match up against the woeful Arizona Cardinals in a Christmas Day affair Saturday at University of Phoenix Stadium. While neither team will be returning to the playoffs this season, both are finishing the year in extremely different fashion. Dallas has won four of its past six games, while the Cardinals have dropped eight of their nine most recent tests.
Dallas' solid play has coincided with the promotion of Garrett, who took over from Wade Phillips following an embarrassing 45-7 loss to Green Bay in Week 9. The Cowboys continued to make progress under the elevated offensive coordinator this past Sunday against the Washington Redskins, when David Buehler's 39-yard field goal in the final minute helped Dallas to a 33-30 home win. Jon Kitna had two touchdown passes and finished the game with 305 yards while completing 25-of-37 attempts for the Cowboys, whose two losses under Garrett have both been three-point heartbreakers at home to NFC contenders New Orleans and Philadelphia.
"It's nice to win these games, play competitively, but we don't have to keep making them like this," said Kitna of the tight finish. "We want to control all three phases of the game and get to it early. That's where we want to get to. But they are what they are and it was a good win." Jason Witten had 10 catches for 140 yards and a score for Dallas, Miles Austin caught a touchdown pass and Buehler went 4-for-5 on field goal attempts with three extra points.
"The nature of the National Football League it's going to be a challenge every time you go out there," said Garrett. "No one's going to go away. Every time you break that huddle you need to be ready to play offensively, defensively and in the kicking game as well. The Redskins battled back, they made some plays on offense, they made some stops on defense, and they did a good job. They cashed in on some opportunities and we had our backs to the wall and we had to respond to it and ultimately we were able to do that."
The Cowboys had once thought that regular quarterback Tony Romo would return from his broken collarbone this week, but owner Jerry Jones squashed any talk of a comeback shortly after the Washington game. Dallas then placed Romo on injured reserve Tuesday, making him unavailable for the team's final contest of the year in Philadelphia. Kitna, though, has done an admirable job in his place. Although their numbers have been similar, Kitna is 4-4 after taking over following Romo's injury, while the latter guided the Cowboys to just one win in his six starts.
Arizona, meanwhile, may have hit rock bottom this past Sunday, falling to the previously one-win Carolina Panthers, 19-12. "We saw them on tape and knew they were going to play hard," said safety Kerry Rhodes of Carolina. "They were 1-12 and we aren't that much better. You can't really talk about that." Rookie quarterback John Skelton threw for 196 yards on 17-of-33 passing with an interception as the Cardinals failed to build on a 43-13 dismantling of Denver in Week 14 and fell to 4-10 on the season. Steve Breaston scored the lone Arizona touchdown when he recovered a Tim Hightower fumble in the end zone late in the game. "It was a disappointing loss for us," said Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt. "We didn't play well early and made too many mistakes to dig ourselves back from. We didn't make plays out there."
• SERIES HISTORY
----------------------
Dallas has a 55-28-1 lead in its all-time regular-season series with Arizona, but the Cardinals snapped a three-game losing streak against the Cowboys with a 30-24 home triumph during their Super Bowl run in 2008. Dallas' last victory in the set occurred at University of Phoenix Stadium during Week 10 of the 2006 campaign, a 27-10 decision.
The Cardinals did come out on top in the only postseason meeting between the one-time NFC East foes, who shared residence in the same division from 1970-2001. Arizona snapped a 34-year winless drought in the playoffs with a 20-7 verdict at Texas Stadium in an NFC First Round game in 1998. Whisenhunt won his only previous matchup with the Cowboys, while Garrett will be opposing both Whisenhunt and the Cardinals for the first time in charge.
• WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
-------------------------------------------------
With or without Romo, Dallas has been primarily a pass-first offense this season but has shown better balance lately, averaging over 150 rushing yards over the past four games and racking up 217 yards on the ground in an overtime win at Indianapolis in Week 13. The renewed emphasis on running the ball could be partly due to depletions among the receiving corps, with the Cowboys losing one of their best big-play threats for the rest of the year when rookie sensation Dez Bryant broke his fibula against the Colts. Kitna (2250 passing yards, 15 TD, 10 INT) still has Austin (61 receptions, 864 yards, 6 TD) as a deep threat, but the signal-caller has overcome the loss of Bryant by incorporating tight end Witten (82 receptions, 7 TD) more in the game plan.
That was certainly the case this past week against Washington, when the perennial Pro Bowler had 10 catches for 140 yards and a score. Third-year running back Felix Jones (642 rushing yards, 46 receptions, 2 TD) has also been involved as a receiver and has supplanted plodder Marion Barber (313 rushing yards, 3 TD, 11 receptions) as the club's lead ball carrier, though he hasn't been the dynamic playmaker the Cowboys had been hoping for. Barber could return from a calf strain that has sidelined him the last three weeks, but will likely be utilized in a supporting role and primarily in short-yardage situations.
Dallas could continue to make headway running the ball this week, as defending the run has been an issue all season for an Arizona squad that's permitting a poor 145.7 rushing yards per game (30th overall) and has surrendered over 150 yards on the ground six times this year, including this past week when Carolina went for 177 yards. Look for the Cardinals to employ hard-hitting strong safety Adrian Wilson (77 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) closer to the line of scrimmage and help leading tackler Paris Lenon (112 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) and rookie and fellow inside linebacker Daryl Washington (66 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) attempt to neutralize Dallas' balanced attack.
The secondary is the strength of an overall disappointing crew, as Wilson, playmaking free safety Kerry Rhodes (80 tackles, 1 sack, 4 INT) and cornerback Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie (38 tackles, 2 INT, 13 PD) have all been to the Pro Bowl at some point in their careers, and the Cardinals lead the NFL with seven defensive touchdowns in 2010. Veteran outside linebackers Joey Porter (44 tackles, 5 sacks) and Clark Haggans (40 tackles, 4 sacks) head up a pass rush that'll be out to make life tough on the grizzled Kitna.
• WHEN THE CARDINALS HAVE THE BALL
--------------------------------------------------
Despite Skelton's (387 passing yards) rather unimpressive numbers, Whisenhunt has liked what he seen out of the strong-armed 22-year-old from a leadership and decision-making standpoint. The rookie, who will be making his third career start on Saturday, does have two excellent targets to work with when he drops back to pass, as wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald (78 receptions, 986 yards, 5 TD) is a four-time Pro Bowl honoree and counterpart Breaston (43 receptions, 1 TD) averages 16 yards per catch. The passing game, though, has been hampered by an almost non-existent rushing attack, save for a 211-yard outburst against Denver two weeks ago.
After getting a career-best 148 rushing yards and two scores out of top back Hightower (683 rushing yards, 5 TD, 18 receptions) in Week 14, the Cardinals reverted back to their ground woes last Sunday, managing just 43 yards against the Panthers with only 16 coming from Hightower. Arizona sits 30th in the league in yards gained on the ground (86.9 ypg). The Cardinals continued their season-long struggles on third downs in the Carolina game as well, converting only 4-of-15 chances on the day. Arizona is last in the NFL in that aspect, having been successful just 26 percent of the time.
If Skelton gets ample time to survey the field, there should be opportunities to pick apart a vulnerable Dallas secondary that's allowed 256.6 passing yards per game (28th overall) and has permitted 31 touchdown passes, tied with Houston for the highest total in the league. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they've got one of the game's premier pass rushers in outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (57 tackles, 12 sacks), who has recorded his fifth straight season of double-digit sacks, while 2009 All-Pro Jay Ratliff (29 tackles, 4 sacks) is a proven pressure-producer as well from his nose tackle spot.
Twelve of Dallas' 17 interceptions in 2010 have come in the last six games, with safety Gerald Sensabaugh (66 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 INT) coming up with three over that span, so Skelton will have to choose his spots wisely. A front seven headed by Ratliff and inside linebackers Bradie James (106 tackles, 1 INT) and Keith Brooking (87 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) had been doing a credible job containing the run in recent weeks, and held the Redskins to just 55 rushing yards last Sunday.
• PREGAME NOTES
------------------------
While Christmas Day finds a couple of interesting NBA scuffles, Christmas night finds a meaningless NFL contest. Thankfully, there’s a silver lining to every cloud as this stocking is stuffed with our 'INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK!' Though the ‘Boys are a solid 15-4 SU and ATS in this series off an ATS loss, we want no part of their ugly 1-16-1 ATS stat as non-division favorites from Game Thirteen out. We’re also not thrilled with their money-burning 1-6 ATS mark when they line up as favorites this season or their 1-4 ATS log on Saturdays during the regular season when they arrive off a SU win.
We just asked you to go with the Panthers two days ago and now we’re suggesting a play on the Cardinals. It may be a case of too much eggnog but it just may be that the Redbirds are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home on Saturdays during the regular season off a SU loss. It also may be a case of ‘Zona owning a 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS mark in Last Home Games off a loss since 2000. “Whatever the case, we’ll have another as Cardinals’ HC Ken Whisenhunt improves to 10-3 SU and ATS at home as pick or a dog!"
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 3; O/U 49.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -4.08
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
---------------------------------------
--ARIZONA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 28.9, OPPONENT 24.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARIZONA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 31.3, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARIZONA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 30.9, OPPONENT 24.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 4-20 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 17.8, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 19.3, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 16.3, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--ARIZONA is 71-46 OVER (+20.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 19.8, OPPONENT 24.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 11-0 OVER (+11.0 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was DALLAS 27.3, OPPONENT 31.2 - (Rating = 6*)
--DALLAS is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf this season.
The average score was DALLAS 28.0, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 6*)
--DALLAS is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
The average score was DALLAS 25.3, OPPONENT 28.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season.
The average score was DALLAS 26.4, OPPONENT 29.8 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
------------------------------------------------
--ARIZONA is 22-6 against the 1rst half line (+15.2 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 12.5, OPPONENT 9.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARIZONA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 19.2, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 24-42 against the 1rst half line (-22.2 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 9.9, OPPONENT 10.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--ARIZONA is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 14.3, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 5*)
--ARIZONA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 11.9, OPPONENT 20.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARIZONA is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 12.7, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 31-12 OVER (+17.6 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 14.5, OPPONENT 9.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (ARIZONA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams against the total (ARIZONA) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game.
(26-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.8%, +18.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 41.3
The average score in these games was: Team 24.9, Opponent 23.5 (Total points scored = 48.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (55.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (43-33).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites (DALLAS) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a losing record.
(26-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.5%, +17.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (19-17 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.1
The average score in these games was: Team 21.8, Opponent 21.3 (Average point differential = +0.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (42.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-8).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (47-27).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (120-104).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - excellent passing team (>=265 PY/G) against an average passing defense (185-230 PY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game.
(26-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.5%, +17.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12, Opponent 12.7 (Average first half point differential = -0.7)
The situation's record this season is: (1-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (30-15).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (56-31).
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
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***** SATURDAY, DECEMBER 25TH NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
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--Christmas Day home favs are 8-0 ATS against foes playing with 3 or more days rest.
• HOT TEAMS
-----------------
--New York Knicks are 15-4 ATS in their past 19 overall.
--Boston Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 road games.
--Miami Heat are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 games overall.
--Golden State Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their past 5 games against the Northwest Division.
• TOTALS
------------
--Oklahoma City Thunder have seen the over hit in 9 of their past 12 home games.
• QUICK HITS
-----------------
--CHICAGO @ NEW YORK, 12:00 PM ET ESPN CHICAGO: 22-10 Under when the total is 200 to 209.5. NEW YORK: 14-4 ATS off ATS win.
--BOSTON @ ORLANDO, 2:30 PM ET ABC BOSTON: 33-16 ATS off win by 6pts or less. ORLANDO: 4-13 ATS if favored L2 games.
--MIAMI @ LA LAKERS, 5:00 PM ET ABC MIAMI: 23-9 Under off road win. LA LAKERS: 11-2 ATS off loss by 15+ points.
--DENVER @ OKLAHOMA CITY, 8:00 PM ET ESPN DENVER: 1-8 ATS off ATS win. OKLAHOMA CITY: 18-7 ATS off road loss.
--PORTLAND @ GOLDEN STATE, 10:30 PM ET ESPN PORTLAND: 3-0 ATS off BB home wins. GOLDEN STATE: 3-10 ATS off SU win as road dog.
• NOTES & TIPS
--------------------
Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade sat out Thursday’s game against the Phoenix Suns because of swelling in his knee but all signs point to the All-Star returning to the lineup for the team's Christmas Day game. “He was so fired up there after the game, I can't imagine him not playing,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra told the Miami Herald following the 95-83 win over the Suns. “Another day of rest I think will do him good. It wasn't a major thing.”
Meanwhile, sharpshooter Mike Miller has been completely ineffective since returning from thumb surgery. The Fort Launderdale Sun-Sentinel reports Miller will have to play the rest of the season with a splint on the thumb. As for the Lakers, center Andrew Bynum continues to play limited minutes while he deals with pain in his knee. Bynum's presence is a major bonus for the Lakers even in a minor role. Los Angeles big men Gasol and Odom get more rest with Bynum in the rotation.
--The Boston Celtics could be very shorthanded in their frontcourt against the Orlando Magic. Rookie center Semih Erden has started a handful of games with injuries to centers Jermaine and Shaquille O’Neal and forward Kendrick Perkins sitting out until at least the end of January following knee surgery. But now Erden, who is averaging 4.0 points and 2.5 rebounds per game, is sick with the flu and may miss the game against the Magic on Christmas with the illness. This means that a limited Shaq and forwards Glen “Big Baby” Davis and rookie Luke Harangody could be the team’s only frontcourt complements to Kevin Garnett.
--Sacramento Kings guard Tyreke Evans, who has been battling a myriad of injuries including plantar fasciitis, announced that he will skip all of the All-Star Weekend festivities in February. The reining Rookie of the Year is shooting a horrid 37.6 percent from the floor and averaging just 16.2 points and 5.2 assists per game. As a result, the team is a meager 5-22 and needs its leader to get better. Fast. “I’m going to take All-Star weekend off and just try to rest it up he said. “I’ll talk to the doctors and see what I can do while I’ve got that time off.”
• NOTE: NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
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*** CHICAGO @ NEW YORK (-2, O/U 205.5) ***
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The New York Knicks caught the Chicago Bulls without one of their star big men in an impressive victory at the United Center last month. The Bulls will be without another front-court stalwart for the rematch, but with Carlos Boozer back it might not matter. Joakim Noah is now sidelined but Boozer is rounding into form after his injury-delayed debut, and he'll look to lead the Bulls to their 10th win in 11 games when they visit Amare Stoudemire and the Knicks on Christmas afternoon.
New York attempts a league-high 24.8 3-pointers -- a pattern it established from the start of the season. The Knicks made 16 -- five by Tony Douglas en route to a career-high 30 points -- of 24 from beyond the arc in Chicago on Nov. 4. Danilo Gallinari and Raymond Felton added four 3-pointers apiece in New York's 120-112 victory. That loss is still the season high in points allowed for Chicago which lately has been holding opponents well below triple digits.
The Bulls suffered ugly losses in Boozer's first two games back from a broken right hand, but have since won nine of 10 while allowing 87.7 points per game despite Noah's absence due to thumb surgery. That defense certainly made the difference Wednesday at Washington. Chicago held the Wizards to 47 points over the final three quarters while Boozer finished with 30 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in an 87-80 victory. Boozer is averaging averaged 21.2 points and 9.7 rebounds over the last 10 games.
Stoudemire and the Knicks went through their own seemingly unstoppable stretch, a 13-1 run Nov. 17-Dec. 12 that concluded with the first eight of Stoudemire's nine straight games with at least 30 points. He hasn't reached 25 in his last three contests, but New York was simply happy to put an end to its three-game slide Wednesday against Oklahoma City. Stoudemire scored 23 points to lead six Knicks in double figures in a 112-98 win.
"It was a tough week," Stoudemire said. "We were fatigued, we were tired. Honestly we were. So I think (Wednesday) showed that we got enough rest and we played with a lot of energy. We have a tough week still ahead of us, but we're starting off right." Stoudemire was one of the few Knicks that had a rough night during the first meeting with the Bulls. He tied a season low with 14 points, missing 16 of 21 shots while committing eight turnovers.
This is the third meeting between New York and Chicago on Christmas, and the first since 1994 -- the second year of Michael Jordan's baseball hiatus. Jordan certainly enjoyed facing the Knicks during the teams' heated rivalry in the early '90s, and the Bulls' current superstar seems to share those feelings. Derrick Rose has averaged 26.5 points and shot 58.7 percent in his last four meetings with New York. The Knicks also need to do a better job defending Luol Deng. Chicago's small forward has averaged 20.8 points against New York since the 2007-08 season -- his most against any Eastern Conference opponent.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New York by 1.5; O/U 201
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Chicago -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Chicago -1.02
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 49-31 ATS (+14.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 103.8, OPPONENT 108.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 99.3, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 59-38 UNDER (+16.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 102.5, OPPONENT 106.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 43-23 UNDER (+17.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 101.4, OPPONENT 98.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 28-11 UNDER (+15.8 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 97.5, OPPONENT 98.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 28-11 UNDER (+15.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 101.5, OPPONENT 100.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 25-44 against the 1rst half line (-23.4 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 46.7, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 29-11 against the 1rst half line (+16.9 Units) after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 39% or less since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 48.7, OPPONENT 45.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 47.5, OPPONENT 42.7 - (Rating = 5*)
--CHICAGO is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 49.4, OPPONENT 44.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 47.2, OPPONENT 43.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (CHICAGO) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%).
(23-5 since 1996.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 208.6
The average score in these games was: Team 99.7, Opponent 101.4 (Total points scored = 201.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (60.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (CHICAGO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points.
(31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.8, Opponent 49.6 (Total first half points scored = 98.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (49-23).
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*** BOSTON @ ORLANDO (-2.5, O/U 191.5) ***
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Celtics coach Doc Rivers remembers when Boston overhauled its roster three years ago. Sure, the talent was there with the Big Three. So were the questions. "When we made our move everybody told us you had to wait a year to put a championship team together," Rivers said before the Celtics practiced Friday in Orlando. "I didn't buy into that. Neither did our guys, and we proved everybody wrong."
Now imagine a major midseason shake-up. The Celtics will face a reconstructed Magic team Saturday trying to duplicate the quick turnaround -- only doing so in December -- that propelled Boston to instant champions, giving this Eastern Conference finals rematch a Christmas Day remix. "We're not playing for December or January," Magic All-Star center Dwight Howard said. "We're playing for June." Orlando is a shell of the team bounced by Boston in six games last season.
An early slide forced the Magic to orchestrate two blockbuster trades last weekend that brought Gilbert Arenas from Washington and Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark from Phoenix. They gave up Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat, plus a 2011 first-round draft pick and cash, in the deals. Now one question to be answered is do they match up better with Boston.
"I'm not sure how, since they've gotten smaller, what sense that makes," Rivers said. "They've just brought more talent and they're a better team, to me, in the long run because they've added more talent." There is a glaring difference, of course, from the Magic's makeover to the summer of 2007 when the Celtics teamed Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen with Paul Pierce: Boston still had a training camp and an entire regular season to get ready. Orlando is doing this on the fly.
Even Magic coach Stan Van Gundy isn't quite sure how it will all shake out. "I think Miami and Boston are very, very good. Chicago, Atlanta and New York are all playing well and are good. And I think we're a total unknown." he said. If last season was any indication, there's no telling what this matchup might look like in the playoffs. The Celtics limped into the postseason as the fourth seed last season. All they did was knock out top-seeded Cleveland and MVP LeBron James and second-seeded Orlando before losing to the Lakers in Game 7 of the NBA finals.
The Magic are banking on the same approach: sacrifice now to win later. And that's about all they can do at this point. They've slipped from first to tied for fifth in the East after dropping eight of nine games before beating San Antonio, still the league's best at 25-4. Now comes a Boston team that has won 14 straight games to move atop the conference. "I don't think overconfidence is going to be one of our problems right now," Van Gundy said, chuckling. "Our problems are more like learning each others' names and stuff so we can stop saying, 'Go in for No. 23."
Not that Boston has things completely cleared up. The winning streak has baffled Rivers because the team has been hit with so many injuries. Point guard Rajon Rondo, backup Delonte West, Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal have all missed significant time during the spurt. And Kendrick Perkins, the starting center last season, hasn't been on the floor all season. Rondo is expected to sit out against Orlando and both O'Neals will likely play, Rivers said. Even with the Magic just coming together, it's a matchup that will surely test Boston's bravado.
"We're not really concentrating on the streak," Shaquille O'Neal said. "One of our goals is to try to stay dominant at home, beat the teams we're supposed to beat and stay above .500 on the road." The Magic don't have quite the same regular-season expectations. Beating the NBA's top two teams in consecutive games, however, could do wonders for a new team trying to mesh. "We've only seen a glimpse of what we could be and how well we could play and what we could do," Richardson said. "Boston will be another good test. But time will tell how good we really are."
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 2; O/U 190
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -2.73
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 51-75 ATS (-31.5 Units) versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was ORLANDO 95.0, OPPONENT 94.3 - (Rating = 5*)
--ORLANDO is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 95.6, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 101.0, OPPONENT 92.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 50-30 UNDER (+17.6 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 98.0, OPPONENT 93.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 35-18 UNDER (+16.2 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 100.1, OPPONENT 93.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 46-27 UNDER (+16.3 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 96.6, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 1-8 against the 1rst half line (-7.8 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 45.8, OPPONENT 46.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 46-25 against the 1rst half line (+18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 49.4, OPPONENT 46.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 20-3 against the 1rst half line (+16.7 Units) when the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 51.0, OPPONENT 45.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--BOSTON is 18-4 against the 1rst half line (+13.6 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 50.7, OPPONENT 46.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 54-35 UNDER (+15.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 49.4, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 68-49 UNDER (+14.1 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 48.8, OPPONENT 47.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(30-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +19 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (30-11 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1
The average score in these games was: Team 99.3, Opponent 94.9 (Average point differential = +4.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (52.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-9).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (69-44).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (BOSTON) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.
(42-18 since 1996.) (70.0%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 194.8
The average score in these games was: Team 95.4, Opponent 93.3 (Total points scored = 188.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 35 (57.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-10).
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*** MIAMI @ LA LAKERS (-3.5, O/U 191.5) ***
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Kobe Bryant and Lakers coach Phil Jackson haven't really checked out the Miami Heat much this season. They've caught late night highlights and maybe logged a few minutes with a game from the opposite coast, but not a whole lot more. It's finally time for the two-time champions to get an up-close look at their most intriguing challengers. When LeBron James, Chris Bosh and maybe Dwyane Wade take on the Lakers in the NBA's Christmas showcase Saturday, most players in both uniforms hesitate to pile any extra significance onto a television-manufactured event. Most minimize every aspect of it, saying it's no more than a holiday amusement for fans seeking a break from present-opening and eggnog-drinking.
"I don't think it's a measuring stick for us," James said. "It's just another game." Yet competitiveness usually trumps Christmas for elite NBA players. Just ask Bryant -- or don't, since he tellingly hasn't spoken to the media since getting ejected from the Lakers' last game. Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher concede both teams are anticipating the marquee matchup as a chance to gauge their readiness for bigger games in the months to come. And if they eventually face each other in June for the biggest prize of all, even better.
"The personalities that are going to be matching up in this game, I don't know if it can get any bigger," said Fisher, the Lakers point guard who entertained free-agent interest from Miami last summer. "Although there will be other games in this regular season that can mean more, from a personality standpoint and a star power point, I don't know if it can get any bigger." Fisher believes the NBA's impressive television ratings and overall increased spotlight this season can be traced largely to these two franchises and the Boston Celtics. All three boast oversized personalities, compelling team dynamics and remarkable success this season, but the Lakers haven't yet played either opponent.
In fact, the Lakers have monitored the Heat's development with interest more suited to casual fans than potential rivals -- something that might change Saturday. "The dynamic players that they have, as a fan of a game, it makes it easy to watch," Los Angeles forward Lamar Odom said. The NBA has waited seven years for a playoff matchup between Bryant and James. James' Cavaliers beat the Lakers on Christmas last year in a game punctuated by dozens of foam hands thrown onto the Staples Center court by frustrated fans, but Cleveland couldn't get out of the Eastern Conference in the playoffs, leading to James' departure.
"I was in Cleveland and we beat the two-time champs twice in one season, and it didn't get me anything," James said. "It's one game, guys. The media guys hype it up, but when that time is over and done with, we've got to move on to the next one." Wade might miss the game with a sore knee, although Jackson expects him to play. Wade's absence didn't slow down the Heat on Thursday night during their win at Phoenix, with James scoring 36 points.
While the Heat have been outstanding lately, the Lakers' 21-8 record isn't terribly impressive considering it came against the NBA's easiest schedule to date. Los Angeles even flopped in its warmup for Miami, losing by 19 points at home to the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. "I thought their comeuppance might come against Miami, but Milwaukee delivered the blow," Jackson said. "So maybe it got their attention so they can get focused on basketball."
Jackson has participated in more than 20 Christmas showcase games dating to his playing career with the New York Knicks. The 11-time champion coach ranks this meeting with Miami on par with Shaquille O'Neal's return to Los Angeles with the Heat on Christmas 2004, even though he was on a one-year sabbatical from the Lakers at the time, but he doesn't anticipate the same excitement and vigor he felt from Christmas 2008, when the Lakers snapped the defending champion Celtics' 19-game winning streak at Staples. "This one measures up to that," Jackson said. "I don't think it surpasses that."
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Lakers by 3: O/U 197
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -0.10
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 101.8, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in road games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 93.2, OPPONENT 93.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was MIAMI 100.3, OPPONENT 96.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 79-50 OVER (+24.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 102.3, OPPONENT 93.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 24-8 OVER (+15.1 Units) after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 100.3, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 47-75 against the 1rst half line (-35.5 Units) as a home favorite of 2 to 3 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 49.3, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 5*)
--LA LAKERS are 43-65 against the 1rst half line (-28.5 Units) after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.2, OPPONENT 49.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 73-46 UNDER (+22.4 Units) the 1rst half total off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 49.8, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 83-51 UNDER (+26.9 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 47.3, OPPONENT 45.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 41-22 UNDER (+16.8 Units) the 1rst half total after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 47.8, OPPONENT 46.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON- Any team (LA LAKERS) - off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(30-9 since 1996.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (29-10)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.1
The average score in these games was: Team 98.5, Opponent 92.2 (Average point differential = +6.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (45.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).
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*** DENVER @ OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5, O/U 213) ***
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A tragic incident seemingly gives the Oklahoma City Thunder a significant advantage heading into their matchup Saturday night against the Denver Nuggets. The Thunder, who have historically struggled in this series, host a Nuggets team playing its second straight game without Carmelo Anthony following the death of his sister. Anthony traveled with Denver to San Antonio for Wednesday's game but left after receiving word about the death of a family member. Anthony's sister, Michelle Anthony, died of a pre-existing medical condition Tuesday in Baltimore.
The Nuggets, who ended up losing to the Spurs 109-103, aren't expecting Anthony to return until after Christmas. "It brings us down to earth," coach George Karl said before the game. "Basketball isn't the most important thing." J.R. Smith made his first start in three seasons in place of Anthony on Wednesday and played well, finishing with 22 points and seven rebounds. Kenyon Martin also started after missing the first 26 games while recovering from knee surgery, contributing eight points and five boards in 17 minutes for the Nuggets, 1-2 without Anthony this season.
Anthony has been in the middle of some controversy lately by refusing to sign a three-year, $65 million contract extension and hinting he'd like to play for New York. At the same time, he has been playing some of his best basketball, averaging 30.3 points and 10.0 rebounds in his last four games. He also has been instrumental to Denver's dominance of the Thunder. The Nuggets have won 11 of the last 13 meetings, and Anthony's 29.6 scoring average against the Oklahoma City franchise since 2005-06 is his best against any Western Conference opponent.
This will be the second time the Thunder hope to take advantage of Anthony's absence, as their only win in four games against the Nuggets last season came with the three-time All-Star sitting out because of an ankle injury. Oklahoma City is opening a four-game homestand having won seven of nine at the Ford Center. Playing in front of the home crowd should also benefit Kevin Durant, who has scored at least 30 points in each of his last five home games against the Nuggets. The Thunder are 8-2 when Durant, the league's leading scorer with an average of 27.5 points, reaches the 30-point mark this season.
Oklahoma City is coming off a 112-98 loss to the Knicks on Wednesday, its second defeat in three games after winning five straight. Durant had 26 points for the Thunder, who trailed by as many as 22 and gave up 52 points in the paint, tied for their third-most allowed all season. "We didn't come in with the right mindset," coach Scott Brooks said. "They're a physical team. They had their hands on us and really pushed us around a little bit too much tonight and we didn't take the challenge." The challenge for the Thunder now is trying to avoid losing back-to-back games for the first time since Oct. 31 and Nov. 3.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oklahoma City by 2; O/U 212
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oklahoma City -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Oklahoma City -2.01
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 41-22 ATS (+16.7 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 101.5, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 16-40 ATS (-28.4 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 103.2, OPPONENT 113.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 17-39 ATS (-25.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 108.8, OPPONENT 106.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 53-32 OVER (+17.7 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 101.3, OPPONENT 101.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-5 OVER (+15.4 Units) after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 103.2, OPPONENT 102.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 108.9, OPPONENT 105.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-15 against the 1rst half line (-13.4 Units) in home games after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 49.2, OPPONENT 53.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 63-38 against the 1rst half line (+21.2 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.1, OPPONENT 50.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 70-47 against the 1rst half line (+18.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 52.3, OPPONENT 51.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-16 UNDER (+16.2 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 50.1, OPPONENT 49.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 34-16 UNDER (+16.7 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total >= 100.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 51.3, OPPONENT 53.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games.
(41-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.2%, +24.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 56.4, Opponent 55.5 (Average first half point differential = +0.8)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-14).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (44-24).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more.
(53-21 since 1996.) (71.6%, +29.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 109.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.8, Opponent 52.4 (Total first half points scored = 106.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (44-16).
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*** PORTLAND @ GOLDEN STATE (NL) ***
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Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge and Golden State's Monta Ellis have been playing some of the best basketball of their respective careers over the last week. The only time they didn't have huge performances during that stretch came when they played against each other. Aldridge looks to lead the banged-up Trail Blazers to a fourth straight victory Saturday night at Oracle Arena, while Ellis and the Warriors try to win back-to-back games for the first time in more than six weeks. Portland and Golden State met for the first time this season last Saturday at the Rose Garden, with the short-handed Trail Blazers holding on for a 96-95 victory.
Aldridge had 17 points and 12 rebounds, but missed a key jumper with 9.9 seconds to play. That gave the Warriors a chance to win it, but Ellis, who finished with 26 points, missed a long jumper with 0.8 seconds left. Although Aldridge and Ellis each missed clutch shots in that game, they seemingly haven't missed many others over the past week. Aldridge finished with 29 points and a career-high 19 rebounds in Monday's 106-80 win over Milwaukee. He has tied a career high with four straight double-doubles while averaging 29.3 points -- 10.2 better than his season average -- on 61.8 percent shooting.
His sudden offensive surge could not have come at a better time for the Blazers, who have been without Brandon Roy (sore knee) in the last three games and centers Marcus Camby (strained shoulder) and Joel Przybilla (sprained ankle) in the last two. Roy is expected to miss another week, and without the three-time All-Star on the court, Aldridge has been more aggressive. "He's playing like a monster and that's what we need him to do," guard Wesley Matthews said of Aldridge. "He's always had it but he's been deferring a little bit. Now he's putting the team on his back and carrying us through this stretch."
Ellis has long been Golden State's go-to scorer, but he has been particularly impressive lately. He's averaging 35.0 points -- 9.4 better than his season average -- over the last four games while making 9 of 18 from 3-point range. The Warriors have won two of those contests after losing 12 of 13, though they haven't won two straight since Nov. 8-10. Ellis scored nine of his 36 points in overtime in Tuesday's 117-109 victory over Sacramento. "Monta is just so tough to guard 1-on-1," center David Lee said. "In overtime, the bigs usually get tired and they can't help out as much on him. You more or less get out of his way and let Monta do his thing."
Good things tend to happen for the Warriors when Ellis takes over games. Golden State is 7-5 when Ellis has more than 26 points, but 3-13 when he is held under his scoring average. Ellis is averaging 28.2 points in five games against the Blazers since the start of last season, but was limited to 17 points in a 110-105 loss in the last meeting at Oracle Arena on March 11. Roy had 41 points in that game for Portland, which snapped a nine-game losing streak at Golden State. The Blazers, though, have been struggling on the road, losing three straight and seven of eight.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Portland by 2; O/U 198
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Portland -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Portland -1.98
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NOTE: Possible blockbuster deal keeps Blazers' odds off the board. After Charlotte Bobcats head coach Larry Brown stepped down from his position on Wednesday, the team is discussing a major trade with the Portland Trail Blazers, according to a report on AOL Fanhouse.com. That possible deal has the odds for Portland's Christmas Day game with Golden State off the board, while oddsmaker figure out who will be in the lineup for the Trail Blazers Saturday night.
According to the report, the Bobcats are interested in shipping forward Gerald Wallace and point guard DJ Augustin to Portland in exchange for guard Andre Miller and forward/center Marcus Camby. The deal would be the latest shakeup for the team that was taken over by majority owner Michael Jordon before the season. Brown, who went 88-104 record in his two-plus seasons, was replaced by Paul Silas on Wednesday. In other Christmas Day news, the Warriors expect sharp-shooting guard Stephen Curry to return from an ankle injury versus the Trail Blazers. Curry has been out of action since December 8 and is averaging over 20 points per game for Golden State.
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (PORTLAND) - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 225 points or more.
(28-10 since 1996.) (73.7%, +17 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.5, Opponent 47.7 (Average first half point differential = +1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-4).
--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins.
(44-17 since 1996.) (72.1%, +25.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (44-17)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.3
The average score in these games was: Team 99.5, Opponent 96 (Average point differential = +3.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 26 (44.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4).
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